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tjboudreaux
When provisioning, setting a limit, or committing an estimate under uncertainty, size a buffer to residual error and the cost of breach—not to the optimistic edge.
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Explore the skilltjboudreaux
When provisioning, setting a limit, or committing an estimate under uncertainty, size a buffer to residual error and the cost of breach—not to the optimistic edge.
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When one mental model leaves a material blind spot on a multi-domain or high-stakes problem, sequence complementary models with named roles and a conflict rule.
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When unsure which thinking skill fits, map domain and problem type, then return NONE or one primary skill by default (at most three complementary).
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Use under time pressure when the situation is still changing and you must act before certainty — cycle Observe→Orient→Decide→Act on ~70% confidence, then re-observe.
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Before committing scarce time, people, or money, name the best forgone use of those resources and the value delta of the chosen path versus that alternative.
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Before committing to a plan or launch, assume it already failed and reason backward through concrete causes — convert failure paths into mitigations, gates, and stop che…
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Use when forecasting, estimating, or sizing risk — anchor on base rates, give ranges, update prior→likelihood→posterior on evidence, and factor unmeasured quantities int…
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Before heavy deliberation, classify the decision as cheap or costly to undo; decide two-way doors fast and stage one-way doors to preserve options.
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When a symptom has several plausible causes, rank falsifiable hypotheses and run the cheapest discriminating observation first; prefer least-assumptive survivors only af…
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Explore the skillkangarooking
当用户需要做方向性判断、评估「该往哪走/这事靠谱吗」、或想提升决策能力时调用。 核心理念: 判断力(知道行为长期后果)比努力重要; 清晰思考=从基础学科重建推理; 收集心智模型(复利/委托代理/可证伪性/基础数学)。 不适用于: 需要立即执行的具体任务步骤。 Triggers: 判断力/方向/第一性原理/心智模型/思维模型/判断靠不靠谱…
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Explore the skillOpenRaiser
Guides researchers through structured ideation frameworks to discover high-impact research directions. Use when exploring new problem spaces, pivoting between projects,…
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Raptor turns Claude Code into a general-purpose AI offensive/defensive security agent. By using Claude.md and creating rules, sub-agents, and skills, and orchestrating s…
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Explore the skilldvorka-oss
Thinking notebook and Markdown editor.
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Explore the skillKsanaDock
A god-simulation sandbox game built on Godot 4 as a multi-agent AI social simulation system. In this virtual world, AI characters possess independent thinking and memory…
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Refines raw ideas into sharp, actionable concepts through structured divergent and convergent thinking. Use when an idea is still vague, when you need to stress-test ass…
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Extracts what the user actually wants instead of what they think they should want. Achieves this through one-question-at-a-time interview until ~95% confidence about the…