AI Agent Skills

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When the right response mode is unclear, classify the cause-effect domain first; decompose disorder.

When a fault is localized and the proximate cause is known but the systemic root is not, chain evidence-linked whys with a counterfactual stop and a countermeasure.

Use when a selective defect needs IS/IS-NOT difference analysis or a consequential option choice needs must/want weighting and adverse-consequence comparison.

Use when longevity of a non-perishable option matters. Treat survival duration as a remaining-life prior, then check domain drift before favoring the proven.

When provisioning, setting a limit, or committing an estimate under uncertainty, size a buffer to residual error and the cost of breach—not to the optimistic edge.

When one mental model leaves a material blind spot on a multi-domain or high-stakes problem, sequence complementary models with named roles and a conflict rule.

When unsure which thinking skill fits, map domain and problem type, then return NONE or one primary skill by default (at most three complementary).

Use under time pressure when the situation is still changing and you must act before certainty — cycle Observe→Orient→Decide→Act on ~70% confidence, then re-observe.

Before committing to a plan or launch, assume it already failed and reason backward through concrete causes — convert failure paths into mitigations, gates, and stop che…

Use when forecasting, estimating, or sizing risk — anchor on base rates, give ranges, update prior→likelihood→posterior on evidence, and factor unmeasured quantities int…

Before heavy deliberation, classify the decision as cheap or costly to undo; decide two-way doors fast and stage one-way doors to preserve options.

When a symptom has several plausible causes, rank falsifiable hypotheses and run the cheapest discriminating observation first; prefer least-assumptive survivors only af…

当用户需要做方向性判断、评估「该往哪走/这事靠谱吗」、或想提升决策能力时调用。 核心理念: 判断力(知道行为长期后果)比努力重要; 清晰思考=从基础学科重建推理; 收集心智模型(复利/委托代理/可证伪性/基础数学)。 不适用于: 需要立即执行的具体任务步骤。 Triggers: 判断力/方向/第一性原理/心智模型/思维模型/判断靠不靠谱…