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Synthetic-truth controls for analysis pipelines. Use before running any statistical fit, solver, audit, or search on real data — the pipeline must first prove it can recover a known planted answer and catch a deliberately corrupted input.
Synthetic-truth controls for analysis pipelines. Use before running any statistical fit, solver, audit, or search on real data — the pipeline must first prove it can recover a known planted answer and catch a deliberately corrupted input.
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A pipeline that has only ever seen real data has never been tested, because nobody knew what the right answer was. The only inputs whose correct output is known are the ones you construct. Construct them, run them, and do it before real data is touched.
Real data cannot grade a pipeline. Whatever comes out looks like a finding: a slope, an evidence ratio, a list of anomalies, an empty list of anomalies. If the pipeline drops half its input on a parsing error, the output is smaller and still looks like a finding. If a sign convention is inverted, the conclusion reverses and still looks like a finding. The one situation in which output can be graded is when the answer was written down first — a plant: data generated from known parameters, fed through the full analysis, with recovery demanded to the accuracy the real analysis will claim.
The order rule is not a nicety. Controls designed after the real output has been inspected drift toward blessing it: the plant's parameters get chosen in the region where the pipeline is already known to behave, the corruption tests get chosen from the failure classes already ruled out, and the tolerance gets set just wide enough for what was seen. Plant first, look second. Once real output has been seen, the controls you design are no longer independent of it.
0. Freeze the controls before the first real run. Write down the plants, the corruptions, the null tests, and the pass criteria for each while the real data is still unopened. A control invented later, to answer a doubt about a result already in hand, is evidence of much less.
1. Recover a plant, through the full path. Generate data from the model with known parameters and confirm the pipeline recovers them, to the accuracy the real analysis will claim. Two hard requirements hide in that sentence. First, the full path: the plant goes through the exact production entry point, same configuration, same options, same file formats — not a simplified call that skips the reader, the preprocessor, or the assembly step, because those are precisely where pipelines break. Second, the claimed accuracy: if the analysis will report an error bar, the planted value must come back inside it; if it will report evidence for a model, the plant generated under that model must yield that verdict. Recovery to worse accuracy than the claim tests a weaker claim than the one being made. Plant more than once, and include awkward corners of the parameter range along with the comfortable middle.
2. Catch corruptions. Feed the pipeline inputs deliberately broken in the ways it is supposed to detect — a sign flip, two swapped rows, two swapped column labels, a block scaled by a constant, a shifted grid, a duplicated record, a truncated file — one corruption at a time, and confirm every one is caught, loudly, at the step that claims to catch it. Run a clean twin alongside: an uncorrupted copy that must pass, proving the alarm is responding to the corruption and not to everything. A checker that has never fired is untested; a checker that fires on everything is noise.
3. Null the machinery. Where the pipeline sums, averages, or assembles contributions: push a table of zeros through the full path and demand exactly the baseline back — not approximately, exactly, because "approximately zero" is where sign errors and double-counting hide. Re-insert a component the system already contains and demand its recorded effect back, identically. Nulls test the plumbing separately from the statistics, and plumbing is where most real failures live.
4. Author the fixtures independently of the code under test. The expected answer must not come from the pipeline being tested. Generate the plant by construction — write the answer first, then produce data from it — or with a separate implementation. An expected-output file regenerated from the current code turns the test into a check that the code agrees with itself; every bug present at generation time is baked into the fixture and certified forever after.
5. Prove each control can fail. For every check in the battery, break its input once on purpose and watch it fire. This is the only way to find the checks that cannot fail — the aliased comparison, the unreachable assertion, the tolerance that spans the whole range. A control's first demonstrated failure is its birth certificate; before that it is a hope.
6. Record the controls with the result. The plants, the catches, and the nulls are part of the deliverable, not scaffolding to delete. A result whose controls were run but discarded cannot be distinguished, later, from a result whose controls were never run — and later is when the question gets asked.
7. When a control fires on real data: stop. Diagnose to the root before any further run. The forbidden move is the plausible benign story — "that check is oversensitive", "it's probably the known formatting quirk" — followed by an override. A fired control that gets explained away is worse than no control: it converts a working alarm into false confidence, and it trains everyone touching the pipeline to override the next one.
Each is a class seen in practice, in agent-built and human-built pipelines alike. The vignette states the mechanism.
The check that cannot fail. A comparison of a quantity against itself through an aliased variable; an assertion inside a branch nothing reaches; a tolerance wider than the range of possible answers. The test suite is green from the day it is written to the day the pipeline dies, and it was never once capable of turning red. Step 5 is the cure: no check counts until it has been watched to fire.
The string-compared verifier. Two numbers formatted through the same printer and compared as text: the formatter rounds both sides identically, so values differing beyond the printed precision compare equal — and the comparison silently tests fewer digits than anyone believes. Worse, when both sides pass through the same serializer, a bug in the serializer equalizes genuinely different values. Compare numbers as numbers, at a stated precision, with the precision printed in the pass message.
Fixtures authored by the code under test. The "expected" file was produced by an earlier run of the same pipeline, and gets regenerated whenever it drifts. The suite now enforces self-agreement: any bug present at fixture time is preserved, and a later fix that changes the output reads as a regression. Expected answers come from construction or from an independent implementation, never from the thing being graded.
The silent-pass leg. A loop over cases catches exceptions per case and moves on; the summary counts the cases that ran. A missing input file yields an empty case list, zero failures, and a green banner — "all passed" where the denominator was silently zero. Every summary states its denominator, and the harness fails when the denominator is smaller than declared.
The tuned threshold. A plant is not recovered; instead of finding the cause, the tolerance is loosened until it is. Repeat a few times and the tolerance is exactly wide enough to pass a broken pipeline — a real error of the same size as the widening now passes by construction. A control that needs its threshold moved has found something; find out what.
The plant designed after peeking. Real output is inspected first, then a synthetic control is built "to confirm" — with parameters, corruption types, and pass criteria all chosen in the shadow of what was seen. The control confirms; it was never able to do anything else. This is why step 0 freezes the battery before the real data opens.
The simplified-path plant. The control runs through a convenience entry point — smaller grid, mocked reader, the assembly step stubbed out — and passes. The real run uses the full path, and the failure lives in a step the control skipped. A plant certifies exactly the code path it traversed and nothing else.
Self-consistency mistaken for a control. The calculation's own convergence diagnostics stay clean orders of magnitude past a real failure, because a pipeline that is consistently wrong is still consistent. Internal agreement, stability under iterations, and smooth residuals are properties of the machinery, not of the answer. Only a check with an independent notion of truth counts: a plant, a positivity or symmetry constraint the answer must obey, a second route.
The explained-away alarm. A control fires on real data; a plausible story is found; the run proceeds. When the failure finally surfaces through some other channel, the record shows the alarm worked and was overridden — the most expensive possible way to learn the control was right. Firing means stop; the story, if true, will survive a root-cause diagnosis.
The unconditional banner. The driver prints its completion message outside the conditional that checks the results, so a run that verified nothing announces success. The verdict text must be produced by the verification itself, from measured quantities — and the deliberate break of step 5 exposes this class immediately, because the banner also blesses the broken run.
A regression pipeline. Write down a slope and intercept. Generate data from them with the noise model the analysis assumes. Run the production entry point — the same command the real data will get — and demand the planted values back inside the reported intervals. Then swap two column labels in a copy of the input and demand the consistency check names the columns; run the unswapped copy alongside and demand silence. Only then open the real data.
An assembler of contributions. Before trusting a total, push a table of zeros through the assembly and demand the exact baseline. Then take one component whose individual effect is already on record, re-insert it alone, and demand that recorded effect back to the digit. If the zeros come back nonzero or the known component comes back changed, the plumbing is broken, and no statistic computed through it means anything.
Sources and acknowledgments. Planted-truth recovery is what statisticians call simulation-based calibration (Cook, Gelman and Rubin, J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 15 (2006) 675; Talts, Betancourt, Simpson, Vehtari and Gelman, arXiv:1804.06788) and what experimental collaborations call injection tests or mock-data challenges; "prove each control can fail" is mutation testing (DeMillo, Lipton and Sayward, IEEE Computer 11(4) (1978) 34); positive and negative
name: planted-truth description: Synthetic-truth controls for analysis pipelines. Use before running any statistical fit, solver, audit, or search on real data — the pipeline must first prove it can recover a known planted answer and catch a deliberately corrupted input.
--- name: planted-truth description: Synthetic-truth controls for analysis pipelines. Use before running any statistical fit, solver, audit, or search on real data — the pipeline must first prove it can recover a known planted answer and catch a deliberately corrupted input. --- # planted-truth — the pipeline runs on synthetic truth first **A pipeline that has only ever seen real data has never been tested, because nobody knew what the right answer was. The only inputs whose correct output is known are the ones you construct. Construct them, run them, and do it before real data is touched.** Real data cannot grade a pipeline. Whatever comes out looks like a finding: a slope, an evidence ratio, a list of anomalies, an empty list of anomalies. If the pipeline drops half its input on a parsing error, the output is smaller and still looks like a finding. If a sign convention is inverted, the conclusion reverses and still looks like a finding. The one situation in which output can be graded is when the answer was written down first — a plant: data generated from known parameters, fed through the full analysis, with recovery demanded to the accuracy the real analysis will claim. The order rule is not a nicety. Controls designed after the real output has been inspected drift toward blessing it: the plant's parameters get chosen in the region where the pipeline is already known to behave, the corruption tests get chosen from the failure classes already ruled out, and the tolerance gets set just wide enough for what was seen. Plant first, look second. Once real output has been seen, the controls you design are no longer independent of it. ## The procedure **0. Freeze the controls before the first real run.** Write down the plants, the corruptions, the null tests, and the pass criteria for each while the real data is still unopened. A control invented later, to answer a doubt about a result already in hand, is evidence of much less. **1. Recover a plant, through the full path.** Generate data from the model with known parameters and confirm the pipeline recovers them, to the accuracy the real analysis will claim. Two hard requirements hide in that sentence. First, *the full path*: the plant goes through the exact production entry point, same configuration, same options, same file formats — not a simplified call that skips the reader, the preprocessor, or the assembly step, because those are precisely where pipelines break. Second, *the claimed accuracy*: if the analysis will report an error bar, the planted value must come back inside it; if it will report evidence for a model, the plant generated under that model must yield that verdict. Recovery to worse accuracy than the claim tests a weaker claim than the one being made. Plant more than once, and include awkward corners of the parameter range along with the comfortable middle. **2. Catch corruptions.** Feed the pipeline inputs deliberately broken in the ways it is supposed to detect — a sign flip, two swapped rows, two swapped column labels, a block scaled by a constant, a shifted grid, a duplicated record, a truncated file — one corruption at a time, and confirm every one is caught, loudly, at the step that claims to catch it. Run a clean twin alongside: an uncorrupted copy that must pass, proving the alarm is responding to the corruption and not to everything. A checker that has never fired is untested; a checker that fires on everything is noise. **3. Null the machinery.** Where the pipeline sums, averages, or assembles contributions: push a table of zeros through the full path and demand exactly the baseline back — not approximately, exactly, because "approximately zero" is where sign errors and double-counting hide. Re-insert a component the system already contains and demand its recorded effect back, identically. Nulls test the plumbing separately from the statistics, and plumbing is where most real failures live. **4. Author the fixtures independently of the code under test.** The expected answer must not come from the pipeline being tested. Generate the plant by construction — write the answer first, then produce data from it — or with a separate implementation. An expected-output file regenerated from the current code turns the test into a check that the code agrees with itself; every bug present at generation time is baked into the fixture and certified forever after. **5. Prove each control can fail.** For every check in the battery, break its input once on purpose and watch it fire. This is the only way to find the checks that cannot fail — the aliased comparison, the unreachable assertion, the tolerance that spans the whole range. A control's first demonstrated failure is its birth certificate; before that it is a hope. **6. Record the controls with the result.** The plants, the catches, and the nulls are part of the deliverable, not scaffolding to delete. A result whose controls were run but discarded cannot be distinguished, later, from a result whose controls were never run — and later is when the question gets asked. **7. When a control fires on real data: stop.** Diagnose to the root before any further run. The forbidden move is the plausible benign story — "that check is oversensitive", "it's probably the known formatting quirk" — followed by an override. A fired control that gets explained away is worse than no control: it converts a working alarm into false confidence, and it trains everyone touching the pipeline to override the next one. ## Failure modes the controls exist to catch Each is a class seen in practice, in agent-built and human-built pipelines alike. The vignette states the mechanism. - **The check that cannot fail.** A comparison of a quantity against itself through an aliased variable; an assertion inside a branch nothing reaches; a tolerance wider than the range of possible answers. The test suite is green from the day it is written to the day the pipeline dies, and it was never once capable of turning red. Step 5 is the cure: no check counts until it has been watched to fire. - **The string-compared verifier.** Two numbers formatted through the same printer and compared as text: the formatter rounds both sides identically, so values differing beyond the printed precision compare equal — and the comparison silently tests fewer digits than anyone believes. Worse, when both sides pass through the same serializer, a bug in the serializer equalizes genuinely different values. Compare numbers as numbers, at a stated precision, with the precision printed in the pass message. - **Fixtures authored by the code under test.** The "expected" file was produced by an earlier run of the same pipeline, and gets regenerated whenever it drifts. The suite now enforces self-agreement: any bug present at fixture time is preserved, and a later fix that changes the output reads as a regression. Expected answers come from construction or from an independent implementation, never from the thing being graded. - **The silent-pass leg.** A loop over cases catches exceptions per case and moves on; the summary counts the cases that ran. A missing input file yields an empty case list, zero failures, and a green banner — "all passed" where the denominator was silently zero. Every summary states its denominator, and the harness fails when the denominator is smaller than declared. - **The tuned threshold.** A plant is not recovered; instead of finding the cause, the tolerance is loosened until it is. Repeat a few times and the tolerance is exactly wide enough to pass a broken pipeline — a real error of the same size as the widening now passes by construction. A control that needs its threshold moved has found something; find out what. - **The plant designed after peeking.** Real output is inspected first, then a synthetic control is built "to confirm" — with parameters, corruption types, and pass criteria all chosen in the shadow of what was seen. The control confirms; it was never able to do anything else. This is why step 0 freezes the battery before the real data opens. - **The simplified-path plant.** The control runs through a convenience entry point — smaller grid, mocked reader, the assembly step stubbed out — and passes. The real run uses the full path, and the failure lives in a step the control skipped. A plant certifies exactly the code path it traversed and nothing else. - **Self-consistency mistaken for a control.** The calculation's own convergence diagnostics stay clean orders of magnitude past a real failure, because a pipeline that is consistently wrong is still consistent. Internal agreement, stability under iterations, and smooth residuals are properties of the machinery, not of the answer. Only a check with an independent notion of truth counts: a plant, a positivity or symmetry constraint the answer must obey, a second route. - **The explained-away alarm.** A control fires on real data; a plausible story is found; the run proceeds. When the failure finally surfaces through some other channel, the record shows the alarm worked and was overridden — the most expensive possible way to learn the control was right. Firing means stop; the story, if true, will survive a root-cause diagnosis. - **The unconditional banner.** The driver prints its completion message outside the conditional that checks the results, so a run that verified nothing announces success. The verdict text must be produced by the verification itself, from measured quantities — and the deliberate break of step 5 exposes this class immediately, because the banner also blesses the broken run. ## Two micro-examples *A regression pipeline.* Write down a slope and intercept. Generate data from them with the noise model the analysis assumes. Run the production entry point — the same command the real data will get — and demand the planted values back inside the reported intervals. Then swap two column labels in a copy of the input and demand the consistency check names the columns; run the unswapped copy alongside and demand silence. Only then open the real data. *An assembler of contributions.* Before trusting a total, push a table of zeros through the assembly and demand the exact baseline. Then take one component whose individual effect is already on record, re-insert it alone, and demand that recorded effect back to the digit. If the zeros come back nonzero or the known component comes back changed, the plumbing is broken, and no statistic computed through it means anything. ## Checklist before the first real-data run - [ ] Control battery — plants, corruptions, nulls, pass criteria — written down before real data was opened. - [ ] Plant recovered through the full production path, to the accuracy the real analysis will claim, including awkward parameter corners. - [ ] Every claimed detector shown to catch its corruption, loudly; clean twin passed alongside. - [ ] Zeros through the assembly returned the exact baseline; a known component returned its recorded effect identically. - [ ] No fixture was authored by the code under test. - [ ] Every control has been watched to fail at least once, on a deliberate break. - [ ] Pass messages state counts and denominators; no banner prints outside the verification. - [ ] Controls filed with the result, not deleted. - [ ] Standing order acknowledged: a control that fires on real data stops the run until the root cause is known. **Sources and acknowledgments.** Planted-truth recovery is what statisticians call simulation-based calibration (Cook, Gelman and Rubin, J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 15 (2006) 675; Talts, Betancourt, Simpson, Vehtari and Gelman, arXiv:1804.06788) and what experimental collaborations call injection tests or mock-data challenges; "prove each control can fail" is mutation testing (DeMillo, Lipton and Sayward, IEEE Computer 11(4) (1978) 34); positive and negative
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Audit
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This page exposes the same decision, trust, audit, use-case, and install signals through the Registry API, so agents can rank this skill without scraping the UI.
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"Financial research output is not financial advice; require human review before any live investment decision",
"Potential broker, wallet, exchange, or real-money execution surface; sandbox and explicit approval are required",
"Low GitHub adoption signal",
"AI review approval is missing",
"Financial research output is not financial advice; require human review before any live investment decision.",
"This skill may touch real-money trading, broker, wallet, or exchange operations; use only in a sandbox with explicit approval.",
"Quality score needs review",
"GitHub adoption: 20 GitHub stars"
]
},
"safety_gate": {
"tier": "blocked",
"label": "Blocked for auto-install",
"auto_install_policy": "block",
"auto_install_allowed": false,
"human_review_required": true,
"blocked": true,
"recommended_action": "Do not auto-install. Inspect the source, dependencies, and permission surface first."
},
"quality": {
"score": 54,
"label": "Needs review"
},
"supply": {
"track": "Research and knowledge work",
"scenario": "Research agents",
"maintenance": "4d since push",
"risk": "Risky"
},
"alternative_skills": [],
"do_not_use_when": [
"teams that need a vendor-supported SLA",
"production agents without a repository review",
"Low GitHub adoption signal",
"Audit risk risky exceeds max_risk=medium",
"High-risk permission hints: Shell or command execution",
"Financial research output is not financial advice; require human review before any live investment decision",
"Potential broker, wallet, exchange, or real-money execution surface; sandbox and explicit approval are required",
"AI review approval is missing"
],
"agent_contract": {
"task_input": "Use planted-truth in an agent workflow",
"recommended_action": "Do not auto-install. Inspect the source, dependencies, and permission surface first.",
"install_policy": "block",
"minimum_review_before_use": [
"Trust: 73/100 Strong shortlist",
"Audit: 75/100 Risky",
"Safety: 47/100 Avoid automatic install",
"Review repository, license, install command, and permission surface before production use."
],
"expected_agent_output": {
"selected_skill": "bootloops-ai-planted-truth (planted-truth)",
"install_command": "npx skills add BootLoops-ai/skills --skill planted-truth",
"risk_summary": "Risky; Blocked for auto-install; Review before production",
"verification_result": "Report the smallest successful task, files touched, warnings, and any missing setup."
}
},
"outcome_feedback": {
"endpoint": "https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/outcome",
"method": "POST",
"requires_resolve_event_id": true,
"event_id_source": "Use install_receipt.outcome_feedback.event_id or feedback.event_id returned by /api/agent/resolve for the current task.",
"expected_outcomes": [
"success",
"failed",
"not_relevant",
"blocked_by_risk",
"setup_required"
],
"payload_template": {
"event_id": "<install_receipt.outcome_feedback.event_id or feedback.event_id from /api/agent/resolve>",
"skill_slug": "bootloops-ai-planted-truth",
"task": "Use planted-truth in an agent workflow",
"agent": "codex",
"outcome": "success",
"install_used": true,
"risk_blocked": false,
"setup_required": false,
"task_success": true,
"output_quality": 4,
"error_type": null,
"human_review_required": false,
"workspace": "sandbox",
"time_to_useful_ms": 120000,
"notes": "Report the smallest successful task, setup friction, files touched, and risk notes."
}
},
"endpoints": {
"web": "https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/bootloops-ai-planted-truth",
"api": "https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/skills/bootloops-ai-planted-truth",
"audit": "https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/bootloops-ai-planted-truth/audit",
"eval": "https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/evals?slug=bootloops-ai-planted-truth&task=Use%20planted-truth%20in%20an%20agent%20workflow&max_risk=medium",
"resolve": "https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/resolve?task=Use%20planted-truth%20in%20an%20agent%20workflow&agent=codex&max_risk=medium",
"receipt": "https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/receipt?task=Use%20planted-truth%20in%20an%20agent%20workflow&agent=codex&max_risk=medium&format=text",
"install": "https://www.openagentskill.com/api/skills/bootloops-ai-planted-truth/install",
"manifest": "https://www.openagentskill.com/api/registry/manifest/bootloops-ai-planted-truth"
}
}Listing source
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