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invest-macro

invest系列：宏观与市场环境分析。评估全球流动性、美股情绪、加密底部信号，判断当前市场环境对风险资产是否友好。触发：「流动性」「美联储」「缩表」「TGA」「SOFR」「MOVE」「日元套利」「钱紧不紧」「市场环境」「美股情绪」「NAAIM」「市场过热」「恐惧贪婪」「仓位管理」「市场风险」「比特币抄底」「BTC底部」「MVRV」「抄底」

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invest-macro：宏观与市场环境

市场环境决定大类资产的方向。先看水位，再看情绪，最后看抄底信号。数据来源见 invest-cli（intent macro / Wind economic_data）或公开检索，时效性强。

场景判断

用户问题	激活维度
「流动性」「美联储」「SOFR」「缩表」「钱紧不紧」	宏观流动性
「美股情绪」「NAAIM」「市场过热」「恐惧贪婪」	美股情绪
「比特币抄底」「BTC底部」「MVRV」	加密底部
「市场环境」「市场风险」「仓位管理」	全部三个

维度A：宏观流动性（4 大核心指标）

核心公式：净流动性 = 美联储总资产 − TGA 余额 − ON RRP 余额

指标	含义	信号
美联储净流动性	美联储实际注入市场的钱	单周下降 >5% → 预警；缓慢下降 → 关注
SOFR 隔夜融资利率	银行间资金紧张度	突升 → 钱紧
MOVE 美债波动率指数	债市动荡程度	>120 → 预警
日元套利交易信号	USDJPY + 全球风险	日元急升 + 美股大跌 → 套利平仓

综合输出：流动性评级（充裕 / 收紧 / 紧张）＋风险应对建议。

维度B：美股情绪

指标	信号
NAAIM 暴露指数	>80 机构满仓预警，<40 反向抄底
机构股票配置比例	历史极值区域预警
散户净买入额	散户狂热往往是顶部信号
标普500 远期市盈率	>20 偏高，<15 偏低
对冲基金杠杆率	高杠杆增加系统性风险
恐惧贪婪指数	>80 极端贪婪（顶区），<20 极端恐慌（反向机会）

综合输出：情绪评级（贪婪 / 正常 / 恐慌）＋仓位建议（减仓 / 持有 / 加仓）。

维度C：加密底部信号

指标	信号
BTC 周线 RSI	<30 严重超跌（历史底部区域）
成交量萎缩	<30日均量70%，卖压枯竭
MVRV 比率	<1 被低估，<0.8 严重低估
恐惧贪婪指数	<20 极端恐慌（反向指标）
矿机关机价	价格接近关机价 = 底部支撑
长期持有者行为	LTH 增持 = 底部吸筹

综合输出：抄底评级（A/B/C/D，A=强烈信号）＋分批建仓与止损。

输出格式

# 市场环境分析

[激活维度名称]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
指标1：当前值 | 信号 | 简评
指标2：当前值 | 信号 | 简评
...

综合评级：____
关键结论：____
行动建议：____

数据来源：invest-cli（intent macro / Wind economic_data）或公开检索
免责声明：基于公开信息的分析框架，不构成投资建议。

数据获取（invest-cli）

intent macro 优先走 FRED 净流动性结构化通道，无 key 或取数失败自动降级 argo 检索：

# 宏观流动性（FRED：净流动性 = 总资产 − TGA − ON RRP + SOFR；需 FRED_API_KEY，免费注册）
# 无 key 时自动降级 argo nbs_stats；PATH 无 invest-cli 时兜底 python3 "$HOME/.agents/skills/invest-cli/scripts/invest_cli.py"
invest-cli intent macro
# 宏观检索兜底/背景（argo nbs_stats 等引擎池）
# 流动性/宏观经济（Wind economic_data）
invest-cli wind economic_data query_economic_indicator_data --input '{"indicatorCode":""}'

FRED key 配置（免注册费）：环境变量 FRED_API_KEY 或 ~/.config/invest-cli/fred.env 写入 FRED_API_KEY=xxx。

与系列技能分工

「分析黄金/白银/原油/债券/可转债/REITs」→ invest-asset
「市场环境/仓位管理」→ invest-macro
「美股个股」→ invest-stock
「资产配置再平衡」→ invest-allocation

核心原则

环境优先：市场环境决定仓位与进攻性，先判环境再选标的。
时效第一：流动性与情绪指标是时点数据，取当前值，不用历史值代替。
不预测单点：输出评级与应对，不预测具体点位。
指标冲突并列：不同指标信号冲突时并列说明，不强行合并。

invest-macro v1.0 | 宏观流动性 + 美股情绪 + 加密底部

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File metadata

name: invest-macro
description: |
  invest系列：宏观与市场环境分析。评估全球流动性、美股情绪、加密底部信号，判断当前市场环境对风险资产是否友好。

  触发：「流动性」「美联储」「缩表」「TGA」「SOFR」「MOVE」「日元套利」「钱紧不紧」「市场环境」
  「美股情绪」「NAAIM」「市场过热」「恐惧贪婪」「仓位管理」「市场风险」「比特币抄底」「BTC底部」「MVRV」「抄底」

View original text

---
name: invest-macro
description: |
  invest系列：宏观与市场环境分析。评估全球流动性、美股情绪、加密底部信号，判断当前市场环境对风险资产是否友好。

  触发：「流动性」「美联储」「缩表」「TGA」「SOFR」「MOVE」「日元套利」「钱紧不紧」「市场环境」
  「美股情绪」「NAAIM」「市场过热」「恐惧贪婪」「仓位管理」「市场风险」「比特币抄底」「BTC底部」「MVRV」「抄底」
---

# invest-macro：宏观与市场环境

> 市场环境决定大类资产的方向。先看水位，再看情绪，最后看抄底信号。
> 数据来源见 invest-cli（intent macro / Wind economic_data）或公开检索，时效性强。

---

## 场景判断

| 用户问题 | 激活维度 |
|---------|---------|
| 「流动性」「美联储」「SOFR」「缩表」「钱紧不紧」 | 宏观流动性 |
| 「美股情绪」「NAAIM」「市场过热」「恐惧贪婪」 | 美股情绪 |
| 「比特币抄底」「BTC底部」「MVRV」 | 加密底部 |
| 「市场环境」「市场风险」「仓位管理」 | 全部三个 |

---

## 维度A：宏观流动性（4 大核心指标）

**核心公式**：净流动性 = 美联储总资产 − TGA 余额 − ON RRP 余额

| 指标 | 含义 | 信号 |
|------|------|------|
| 美联储净流动性 | 美联储实际注入市场的钱 | 单周下降 >5% → 预警；缓慢下降 → 关注 |
| SOFR 隔夜融资利率 | 银行间资金紧张度 | 突升 → 钱紧 |
| MOVE 美债波动率指数 | 债市动荡程度 | >120 → 预警 |
| 日元套利交易信号 | USDJPY + 全球风险 | 日元急升 + 美股大跌 → 套利平仓 |

**综合输出**：流动性评级（充裕 / 收紧 / 紧张）＋ 风险应对建议。

---

## 维度B：美股情绪

| 指标 | 信号 |
|------|------|
| NAAIM 暴露指数 | >80 机构满仓预警，<40 反向抄底 |
| 机构股票配置比例 | 历史极值区域预警 |
| 散户净买入额 | 散户狂热往往是顶部信号 |
| 标普500 远期市盈率 | >20 偏高，<15 偏低 |
| 对冲基金杠杆率 | 高杠杆增加系统性风险 |
| 恐惧贪婪指数 | >80 极端贪婪（顶区），<20 极端恐慌（反向机会） |

**综合输出**：情绪评级（贪婪 / 正常 / 恐慌）＋ 仓位建议（减仓 / 持有 / 加仓）。

---

## 维度C：加密底部信号

| 指标 | 信号 |
|------|------|
| BTC 周线 RSI | <30 严重超跌（历史底部区域） |
| 成交量萎缩 | <30日均量70%，卖压枯竭 |
| MVRV 比率 | <1 被低估，<0.8 严重低估 |
| 恐惧贪婪指数 | <20 极端恐慌（反向指标） |
| 矿机关机价 | 价格接近关机价 = 底部支撑 |
| 长期持有者行为 | LTH 增持 = 底部吸筹 |

**综合输出**：抄底评级（A/B/C/D，A=强烈信号）＋ 分批建仓与止损。

---

## 输出格式

```markdown
# 市场环境分析

[激活维度名称]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
指标1：当前值 | 信号 | 简评
指标2：当前值 | 信号 | 简评
...

综合评级：____
关键结论：____
行动建议：____

数据来源：invest-cli（intent macro / Wind economic_data）或公开检索
免责声明：基于公开信息的分析框架，不构成投资建议。
```

---

## 数据获取（invest-cli）

`intent macro` 优先走 FRED 净流动性结构化通道，无 key 或取数失败自动降级 argo 检索：

```bash
# 宏观流动性（FRED：净流动性 = 总资产 − TGA − ON RRP + SOFR；需 FRED_API_KEY，免费注册）
# 无 key 时自动降级 argo nbs_stats；PATH 无 invest-cli 时兜底 python3 "$HOME/.agents/skills/invest-cli/scripts/invest_cli.py"
invest-cli intent macro
# 宏观检索兜底/背景（argo nbs_stats 等引擎池）
# 流动性/宏观经济（Wind economic_data）
invest-cli wind economic_data query_economic_indicator_data --input '{"indicatorCode":""}'
```

FRED key 配置（免注册费）：环境变量 `FRED_API_KEY` 或 `~/.config/invest-cli/fred.env` 写入 `FRED_API_KEY=xxx`。

---

## 与系列技能分工

- 「分析黄金/白银/原油/债券/可转债/REITs」→ invest-asset
- 「市场环境/仓位管理」→ invest-macro
- 「美股个股」→ invest-stock
- 「资产配置再平衡」→ invest-allocation

---

## 核心原则

1. **环境优先**：市场环境决定仓位与进攻性，先判环境再选标的。
2. **时效第一**：流动性与情绪指标是时点数据，取当前值，不用历史值代替。
3. **不预测单点**：输出评级与应对，不预测具体点位。
4. **指标冲突并列**：不同指标信号冲突时并列说明，不强行合并。

---

*invest-macro v1.0 | 宏观流动性 + 美股情绪 + 加密底部*

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Source repository: taxueseek/fund-investment-guide
License: MIT
Version: Unknown
Last GitHub push: Sep 21, 2026
Registry updated: Sep 21, 2026
Instruction path: skills/invest-macro/SKILL.md @ 9e6d86aef343

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Dependency or permission surface needs review
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Financial research output is not financial advice; require human review before any live investment decision.
Quality score needs review
Permission surface needs review: secrets or environment access, shell or command execution
GitHub adoption: 21 GitHub stars
Stars/forks activity: 21 stars, 5 forks; issue activity unavailable in current metadata
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    "description": "invest系列：宏观与市场环境分析。评估全球流动性、美股情绪、加密底部信号，判断当前市场环境对风险资产是否友好。\n\n触发：「流动性」「美联储」「缩表」「TGA」「SOFR」「MOVE」「日元套利」「钱紧不紧」「市场环境」\n「美股情绪」「NAAIM」「市场过热」「恐惧贪婪」「仓位管理」「市场风险」「比特币抄底」「BTC底部」「MVRV」「抄底」",
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  }
}

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taxueseek

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invest-macro

Review the source View on GitHub

Price unconfirmed★ 21 GitHub starsRegistry updated · Sep 21, 2026agent-skill

Overview

Read full documentation

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invest-macro：宏观与市场环境

市场环境决定大类资产的方向。先看水位，再看情绪，最后看抄底信号。数据来源见 invest-cli（intent macro / Wind economic_data）或公开检索，时效性强。

场景判断

用户问题	激活维度
「流动性」「美联储」「SOFR」「缩表」「钱紧不紧」	宏观流动性
「美股情绪」「NAAIM」「市场过热」「恐惧贪婪」	美股情绪
「比特币抄底」「BTC底部」「MVRV」	加密底部
「市场环境」「市场风险」「仓位管理」	全部三个

维度A：宏观流动性（4 大核心指标）

核心公式：净流动性 = 美联储总资产 − TGA 余额 − ON RRP 余额

指标	含义	信号
美联储净流动性	美联储实际注入市场的钱	单周下降 >5% → 预警；缓慢下降 → 关注
SOFR 隔夜融资利率	银行间资金紧张度	突升 → 钱紧
MOVE 美债波动率指数	债市动荡程度	>120 → 预警
日元套利交易信号	USDJPY + 全球风险	日元急升 + 美股大跌 → 套利平仓

综合输出：流动性评级（充裕 / 收紧 / 紧张）＋风险应对建议。

维度B：美股情绪

指标	信号
NAAIM 暴露指数	>80 机构满仓预警，<40 反向抄底
机构股票配置比例	历史极值区域预警
散户净买入额	散户狂热往往是顶部信号
标普500 远期市盈率	>20 偏高，<15 偏低
对冲基金杠杆率	高杠杆增加系统性风险
恐惧贪婪指数	>80 极端贪婪（顶区），<20 极端恐慌（反向机会）

综合输出：情绪评级（贪婪 / 正常 / 恐慌）＋仓位建议（减仓 / 持有 / 加仓）。

维度C：加密底部信号

指标	信号
BTC 周线 RSI	<30 严重超跌（历史底部区域）
成交量萎缩	<30日均量70%，卖压枯竭
MVRV 比率	<1 被低估，<0.8 严重低估
恐惧贪婪指数	<20 极端恐慌（反向指标）
矿机关机价	价格接近关机价 = 底部支撑
长期持有者行为	LTH 增持 = 底部吸筹

综合输出：抄底评级（A/B/C/D，A=强烈信号）＋分批建仓与止损。

输出格式

# 市场环境分析

[激活维度名称]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
指标1：当前值 | 信号 | 简评
指标2：当前值 | 信号 | 简评
...

综合评级：____
关键结论：____
行动建议：____

数据来源：invest-cli（intent macro / Wind economic_data）或公开检索
免责声明：基于公开信息的分析框架，不构成投资建议。

数据获取（invest-cli）

intent macro 优先走 FRED 净流动性结构化通道，无 key 或取数失败自动降级 argo 检索：

# 宏观流动性（FRED：净流动性 = 总资产 − TGA − ON RRP + SOFR；需 FRED_API_KEY，免费注册）
# 无 key 时自动降级 argo nbs_stats；PATH 无 invest-cli 时兜底 python3 "$HOME/.agents/skills/invest-cli/scripts/invest_cli.py"
invest-cli intent macro
# 宏观检索兜底/背景（argo nbs_stats 等引擎池）
# 流动性/宏观经济（Wind economic_data）
invest-cli wind economic_data query_economic_indicator_data --input '{"indicatorCode":""}'

FRED key 配置（免注册费）：环境变量 FRED_API_KEY 或 ~/.config/invest-cli/fred.env 写入 FRED_API_KEY=xxx。

与系列技能分工

「分析黄金/白银/原油/债券/可转债/REITs」→ invest-asset
「市场环境/仓位管理」→ invest-macro
「美股个股」→ invest-stock
「资产配置再平衡」→ invest-allocation

核心原则

环境优先：市场环境决定仓位与进攻性，先判环境再选标的。
时效第一：流动性与情绪指标是时点数据，取当前值，不用历史值代替。
不预测单点：输出评级与应对，不预测具体点位。
指标冲突并列：不同指标信号冲突时并列说明，不强行合并。

invest-macro v1.0 | 宏观流动性 + 美股情绪 + 加密底部

View source ↗

File metadata

name: invest-macro
description: |
  invest系列：宏观与市场环境分析。评估全球流动性、美股情绪、加密底部信号，判断当前市场环境对风险资产是否友好。

  触发：「流动性」「美联储」「缩表」「TGA」「SOFR」「MOVE」「日元套利」「钱紧不紧」「市场环境」
  「美股情绪」「NAAIM」「市场过热」「恐惧贪婪」「仓位管理」「市场风险」「比特币抄底」「BTC底部」「MVRV」「抄底」

View original text

---
name: invest-macro
description: |
  invest系列：宏观与市场环境分析。评估全球流动性、美股情绪、加密底部信号，判断当前市场环境对风险资产是否友好。

  触发：「流动性」「美联储」「缩表」「TGA」「SOFR」「MOVE」「日元套利」「钱紧不紧」「市场环境」
  「美股情绪」「NAAIM」「市场过热」「恐惧贪婪」「仓位管理」「市场风险」「比特币抄底」「BTC底部」「MVRV」「抄底」
---

# invest-macro：宏观与市场环境

> 市场环境决定大类资产的方向。先看水位，再看情绪，最后看抄底信号。
> 数据来源见 invest-cli（intent macro / Wind economic_data）或公开检索，时效性强。

---

## 场景判断

| 用户问题 | 激活维度 |
|---------|---------|
| 「流动性」「美联储」「SOFR」「缩表」「钱紧不紧」 | 宏观流动性 |
| 「美股情绪」「NAAIM」「市场过热」「恐惧贪婪」 | 美股情绪 |
| 「比特币抄底」「BTC底部」「MVRV」 | 加密底部 |
| 「市场环境」「市场风险」「仓位管理」 | 全部三个 |

---

## 维度A：宏观流动性（4 大核心指标）

**核心公式**：净流动性 = 美联储总资产 − TGA 余额 − ON RRP 余额

| 指标 | 含义 | 信号 |
|------|------|------|
| 美联储净流动性 | 美联储实际注入市场的钱 | 单周下降 >5% → 预警；缓慢下降 → 关注 |
| SOFR 隔夜融资利率 | 银行间资金紧张度 | 突升 → 钱紧 |
| MOVE 美债波动率指数 | 债市动荡程度 | >120 → 预警 |
| 日元套利交易信号 | USDJPY + 全球风险 | 日元急升 + 美股大跌 → 套利平仓 |

**综合输出**：流动性评级（充裕 / 收紧 / 紧张）＋ 风险应对建议。

---

## 维度B：美股情绪

| 指标 | 信号 |
|------|------|
| NAAIM 暴露指数 | >80 机构满仓预警，<40 反向抄底 |
| 机构股票配置比例 | 历史极值区域预警 |
| 散户净买入额 | 散户狂热往往是顶部信号 |
| 标普500 远期市盈率 | >20 偏高，<15 偏低 |
| 对冲基金杠杆率 | 高杠杆增加系统性风险 |
| 恐惧贪婪指数 | >80 极端贪婪（顶区），<20 极端恐慌（反向机会） |

**综合输出**：情绪评级（贪婪 / 正常 / 恐慌）＋ 仓位建议（减仓 / 持有 / 加仓）。

---

## 维度C：加密底部信号

| 指标 | 信号 |
|------|------|
| BTC 周线 RSI | <30 严重超跌（历史底部区域） |
| 成交量萎缩 | <30日均量70%，卖压枯竭 |
| MVRV 比率 | <1 被低估，<0.8 严重低估 |
| 恐惧贪婪指数 | <20 极端恐慌（反向指标） |
| 矿机关机价 | 价格接近关机价 = 底部支撑 |
| 长期持有者行为 | LTH 增持 = 底部吸筹 |

**综合输出**：抄底评级（A/B/C/D，A=强烈信号）＋ 分批建仓与止损。

---

## 输出格式

```markdown
# 市场环境分析

[激活维度名称]
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
指标1：当前值 | 信号 | 简评
指标2：当前值 | 信号 | 简评
...

综合评级：____
关键结论：____
行动建议：____

数据来源：invest-cli（intent macro / Wind economic_data）或公开检索
免责声明：基于公开信息的分析框架，不构成投资建议。
```

---

## 数据获取（invest-cli）

`intent macro` 优先走 FRED 净流动性结构化通道，无 key 或取数失败自动降级 argo 检索：

```bash
# 宏观流动性（FRED：净流动性 = 总资产 − TGA − ON RRP + SOFR；需 FRED_API_KEY，免费注册）
# 无 key 时自动降级 argo nbs_stats；PATH 无 invest-cli 时兜底 python3 "$HOME/.agents/skills/invest-cli/scripts/invest_cli.py"
invest-cli intent macro
# 宏观检索兜底/背景（argo nbs_stats 等引擎池）
# 流动性/宏观经济（Wind economic_data）
invest-cli wind economic_data query_economic_indicator_data --input '{"indicatorCode":""}'
```

FRED key 配置（免注册费）：环境变量 `FRED_API_KEY` 或 `~/.config/invest-cli/fred.env` 写入 `FRED_API_KEY=xxx`。

---

## 与系列技能分工

- 「分析黄金/白银/原油/债券/可转债/REITs」→ invest-asset
- 「市场环境/仓位管理」→ invest-macro
- 「美股个股」→ invest-stock
- 「资产配置再平衡」→ invest-allocation

---

## 核心原则

1. **环境优先**：市场环境决定仓位与进攻性，先判环境再选标的。
2. **时效第一**：流动性与情绪指标是时点数据，取当前值，不用历史值代替。
3. **不预测单点**：输出评级与应对，不预测具体点位。
4. **指标冲突并列**：不同指标信号冲突时并列说明，不强行合并。

---

*invest-macro v1.0 | 宏观流动性 + 美股情绪 + 加密底部*

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License: MIT

Dependency or permission surface needs review
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Financial research output is not financial advice; require human review before any live investment decision
Low GitHub adoption signal
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Financial research output is not financial advice; require human review before any live investment decision.
Quality score needs review
Permission surface needs review: secrets or environment access, shell or command execution
GitHub adoption: 21 GitHub stars
Stars/forks activity: 21 stars, 5 forks; issue activity unavailable in current metadata
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Source & usage notes

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Source repository: taxueseek/fund-investment-guide
License: MIT
Version: Unknown
Last GitHub push: Sep 21, 2026
Registry updated: Sep 21, 2026
Instruction path: skills/invest-macro/SKILL.md @ 9e6d86aef343

Version reported in registry metadata; check source releases before relying on it.

Quality

55/100

Promising

Trust

59/100

Do not auto-install

Audit

72/100

Needs review

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Dependency or permission surface needs review
Permission surface may require sandboxing
Financial research output is not financial advice; require human review before any live investment decision
Low GitHub adoption signal
AI review approval is missing
Financial research output is not financial advice; require human review before any live investment decision.
Quality score needs review
Permission surface needs review: secrets or environment access, shell or command execution
GitHub adoption: 21 GitHub stars
Stars/forks activity: 21 stars, 5 forks; issue activity unavailable in current metadata
Dependency/runtime risk: command execution surface, credential or environment access
Permission surface: secrets or environment access, shell or command execution

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Source: taxueseek/fund-investment-guide
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Overview

invest-macro：宏观与市场环境

场景判断

维度A：宏观流动性（4 大核心指标）

维度B：美股情绪

维度C：加密底部信号

输出格式

数据获取（invest-cli）

与系列技能分工

核心原则

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Overview

invest-macro：宏观与市场环境

场景判断

维度A：宏观流动性（4 大核心指标）

维度B：美股情绪

维度C：加密底部信号

输出格式

数据获取（invest-cli）

与系列技能分工

核心原则

Review the source

Price & running costs

Start with one small task

Source & usage notes

Agent access

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