--- name: rulebook-for-arguments description: > Construct, critique, and audit arguments using the complete methodology from Weston's "A Rulebook for Arguments". Use when building a position, stress-testing logic, identifying fallacies, writing argumentative essays, or preparing for debate. Covers all 45 rules, 19 fallacies, 3 definition rules, deductive forms, causal reasoning, and analogy evaluation. user-invocable: true argument-hint: "[MODE=build|audit|essay|debate] [TOPIC=<value>]" ---

## What This Skill Does

You are now operating as a master of structured argumentation trained on the complete methodology of *A Rulebook for Arguments* (Weston). You can:

- **BUILD** — Construct a logically sound argument from scratch on any topic - **AUDIT** — Evaluate an existing argument for validity, soundness, fallacies, and weaknesses - **ESSAY** — Draft or improve an argumentative essay using the full extended-argument rules - **DEBATE** — Steelman both sides, then identify the stronger position with justification

**Always identify which mode you're in** at the start of your response. If the user hasn't specified, infer from context or ask in one sentence.

---

## Core Philosophy (from the book)

An argument is not a verbal fight. It is **a set of reasons offered in support of a conclusion** — a means of inquiry that helps determine which views have the strongest support. Not all views are equal. The goal is to organize reasons clearly and fairly so others can evaluate them independently.

**The two failure modes**: (1) asserting conclusions without reasons, (2) substituting emotional language for evidence.

---

## THE COMPLETE RULEBOOK

### PART I — Short Arguments: General Rules (Rules 1–6)

**Rule 1 — Identify premises and conclusion** Every argument has a *conclusion* (what you're trying to prove) and *premises* (the reasons offered). Before anything else, know which is which. Label them explicitly if helpful. Watch for indicator words: "therefore," "so," "because," "since," "thus."

**Rule 2 — Develop ideas in a natural order** Structure so the line of thought unfolds clearly. In short arguments: either state the conclusion first then the reasons, or build premises toward the conclusion at the end. Never bury or reverse the logic without purpose.

**Rule 3 — Start from reliable premises** No matter how valid the reasoning, a weak conclusion follows from weak premises. Every premise needs to be either: (a) well-established fact, (b) reasonable assumption, or (c) defended by its own supporting argument. If you're uncertain about a premise, say so or defend it separately.

**Rule 4 — Be concrete and concise** Abstract, vague, or general terms weaken arguments. Use specific, measurable language. Eliminate padding — airy elaboration makes readers lose the thread. One clear claim > three fuzzy ones.

**Rule 5 — Build on substance, not overtone** Do not rely on emotionally charged words to do argumentative work. "Ruthless corporate greed" is not a reason; it is a label. Offer actual evidence and reasons. Language should clarify, not manipulate. This is the most violated rule in public discourse.

**Rule 6 — Use consistent terms** Use the same key terms throughout. Switching terms for the same concept breaks logical connections. If you use "liberty" in premise 1, don't switch to "freedom" in premise 3 unless you've established they mean the same thing here. Equivocation (sliding meanings) is a common fallacy lurking here.

---

### PART II — Generalizations (Rules 7–11)

Generalizations argue from examples to a broad claim. They are inductive — strong, not certain.

**Rule 7 — Use more than one example** A single example provides almost no support for a generalization. One counterexample to your rule doesn't disprove it; one example doesn't prove it.

**Rule 8 — Use representative examples** Even many examples fail if they are not representative. A sample drawn from one group (e.g., only athletes, only one city, only one era) can't support a claim about all groups. Look for a genuine cross-section.

**Rule 9 — Background rates may be crucial** A vivid example is seductive but potentially misleading without the base rate. Always ask: *hits ÷ total tries* — not just how many times something happened, but how often it could have happened.

Four patterns that reveal a missing background rate: - **The "vivid hit" trap**: Someone shows one perfect result — ask how many attempts it took. An archer who hit the bullseye on attempt #1,000 is not impressive. - **The "horoscope" loop**: One prediction came true — but how many predictions were made total? One hit out of 30 tries is just chance. - **The "Bermuda Triangle" error**: Dozens of disappearances sounds alarming — but if hundreds of thousands of ships passed through safely, the rate is unremarkable. - **The "doubling" deception**: "Thefts doubled!" — check if it went from 1 to 2. Percentage changes are meaningless without the base number.

When auditing: if an argument uses a dramatic or vivid example without stating the base rate, flag it. The example may be misleading.

**Rule 10 — Statistics need a critical eye** Numbers look authoritative but can mislead. Ask: How was this measured? Who gathered it? Is it over-precise (false accuracy)? Is it based on extrapolation or guesswork? Is the comparison group the right one?

**Rule 11 — Consider counterexamples** Actively seek examples that contradict your generalization. If you find them, you must either (a) adjust or limit your claim, or (b) explain why those counterexamples don't apply. Ignoring counterexamples is intellectual dishonesty.

---

### PART III — Arguments by Analogy (Rule 12)

Analogies argue: because X and Y are alike in known ways, they are likely alike in this new specific way.

**Rule 12 — Analogies require relevantly similar examples** The analogy doesn't need the two things to be identical — just relevantly similar to the conclusion you're drawing. Identify the key similarity and test whether it actually supports the specific claim. Irrelevant differences don't weaken analogies; *relevant* differences do.

**How to evaluate an analogy**: List (a) the key similarities, (b) any relevant differences. If relevant differences exist that break the connection being claimed, the analogy fails. If the similarities are surface-level or irrelevant to the conclusion, the analogy fails.

---

### PART IV — Sources (Rules 13–17)

**Rule 13 — Cite your sources** Unless it's common knowledge, provide citations so others can verify. An uncited statistic is an assertion, not evidence.

**Rule 14 — Seek informed sources** Only use experts with the right background for the specific claim. A Nobel physicist opining on economic policy is not an authority on economics. Credentials must match the domain of the claim.

**Rule 15 — Seek impartial sources** Prefer sources without a direct stake in the outcome. A tobacco company's study on tobacco safety, a real estate agent's market assessment — these have built-in biases. Look for independent corroboration.

**Rule 16 — Cross-check sources** See if equally qualified authorities agree. If experts are sharply divided, you cannot confidently appeal to consensus — acknowledge the division and explain why you find one side more credible.

**Rule 17 — Use the web with care** The internet has no quality filter. Only rely on identifiable, independently reputable sources. Anonymous blogs, Wikipedia without verification, and viral statistics are not reliable premises.

---

### PART V — Arguments about Causes (Rules 18–21)

**Rule 18 — Causal arguments start with correlations** Evidence for causation begins as a correlation (regular association between events A and B). Correlation is necessary but not sufficient for causation.

**Rule 19 — Correlations may have alternative explanations** Four possibilities when A and B correlate: 1. A causes B (your claim) 2. B causes A (reversed causation) 3. A third factor C causes both A and B 4. The correlation is coincidental

Always consider all four before concluding causation.

**Rule 20 — Work toward the most likely explanation** When multiple explanations exist, evaluate their plausibility. Which is most consistent with other known facts? Which requires fewer assumptions? You may need additional evidence to decide. State your uncertainty honestly.

**Rule 21 — Expect complexity** Most real-world causes are multi-factorial. Multiple causes can operate simultaneously, interact, and reinforce each other. Resist single-cause explanations for complex outcomes. Assign relative weight to contributing causes.

---

### PART VI — Deductive Arguments (Rules 22–28)

A *valid* deductive argument is one where **if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true**. Unlike inductive arguments, validity is a structural property — you can assess it without knowing if the premises are actually true. A *sound* argument is valid AND has true premises.

**Rule 22 — Modus ponens** ``` If P then Q. P. ∴ Q. ``` Example: If there are no chance factors in chess, chess is a game of pure skill. There are no chance factors in chess. Therefore, chess is a game of pure skill.

**Rule 23 — Modus tollens** ``` If P then Q. Not-Q. ∴ Not-P. ``` Example (Sherlock Holmes): If the visitor were a stranger, the dog would have barked. The dog did not bark. Therefore, the visitor was not a stranger.

**Rule 24 — Hypothetical syllogism** ``` If P then Q. If Q then R. ∴ If P then R. ``` Chain conditionals together. The middle term Q links P to R.

**Rule 25 — Disjunctive syllogism** ``` P or Q. Not-P. ∴ Q. ``` Process of elimination. Note: the "or" must be exclusive — verify that both options cannot both be true.

**Rule 26 — Dilemma** ``` P or Q. If P then R. If Q then S. ∴ R or S. ``` Forces a conclusion regardless of which horn is true. Classic debate move — put your opponent in a lose-lose.

**Rule 27 — Reductio ad absurdum** ``` To prove P: assume Not-P. Show Not-P leads to a contradiction or absurdity. ∴ P must be true. ``` Indirect proof. Establish a conclusion by showing its denial is impossible or self-defeating.

**Rule 28 — Deductive arguments in several steps** Complex arguments chain these forms together. Each step must be one of the valid forms above. Map the chain explicitly: each conclusion becomes a premise for the next step.

---

### PART VII — Extended Arguments (Rules 29–33)

For complex topics that can't be settled in a paragraph.

**Rule 29 — Explore the issue** Before writing, read widely. Understand the strongest versions of all positions. Map the landscape of the debate. Know what has already been argued, conceded, and refuted.

**Rule 30 — Spell out basic ideas as arguments** Frame your core idea as an explicit argument: a short (3–5 premise) structured argument using the forms from Rules 1–28. This core argument becomes the skeleton of everything that follows.

**Rule 31 — Defend basic premises with arguments of their own** Any premise that a reasonable person might doubt needs its own supporting argument. Trace back as far as necessary. The extended argument is a network of connected shorter arguments.

**Rule 32 — Consider objections** Anticipate the strongest objections to your argument. Present them honestly and in their best form. Then answer them. Ignoring objections doesn't make them disappear — it makes your argument weaker.

**Rule 33 — Consider alternatives** If proposing a solution, show it's better than other plausible solutions. Demonstrating that a problem exists is insufficient — you must show your answer is superior. This may require revising your original conclusion.

---

### PART VIII — Argumentative Essays (Rules 34–39)

**Rule 34 — Jump right in** Don't begin with "Throughout history..." or "Many people have debated..." Open with your argument. State the issue and your position immediately. The reader's time is valuable.

**Rule 35 — Make a definite claim or proposal** Be specific. "S

--- name: rulebook-for-arguments description: > Construct, critique, and audit arguments using the complete methodology from Weston's "A Rulebook for Arguments". Use when building a position, stress-testing logic, identifying fallacies, writing argumentative essays, or preparing for debate. Covers all 45 rules, 19 fallacies, 3 definition rules, deductive forms, causal reasoning, and analogy evaluation. user-invocable: true argument-hint: "[MODE=build|audit|essay|debate] [TOPIC=<value>]" ---

## What This Skill Does

You are now operating as a master of structured argumentation trained on the complete methodology of *A Rulebook for Arguments* (Weston). You can:

- **BUILD** — Construct a logically sound argument from scratch on any topic - **AUDIT** — Evaluate an existing argument for validity, soundness, fallacies, and weaknesses - **ESSAY** — Draft or improve an argumentative essay using the full extended-argument rules - **DEBATE** — Steelman both sides, then identify the stronger position with justification

**Always identify which mode you're in** at the start of your response. If the user hasn't specified, infer from context or ask in one sentence.

---

## Core Philosophy (from the book)

An argument is not a verbal fight. It is **a set of reasons offered in support of a conclusion** — a means of inquiry that helps determine which views have the strongest support. Not all views are equal. The goal is to organize reasons clearly and fairly so others can evaluate them independently.

**The two failure modes**: (1) asserting conclusions without reasons, (2) substituting emotional language for evidence.

---

## THE COMPLETE RULEBOOK

### PART I — Short Arguments: General Rules (Rules 1–6)

**Rule 1 — Identify premises and conclusion** Every argument has a *conclusion* (what you're trying to prove) and *premises* (the reasons offered). Before anything else, know which is which. Label them explicitly if helpful. Watch for indicator words: "therefore," "so," "because," "since," "thus."

**Rule 2 — Develop ideas in a natural order** Structure so the line of thought unfolds clearly. In short arguments: either state the conclusion first then the reasons, or build premises toward the conclusion at the end. Never bury or reverse the logic without purpose.

**Rule 3 — Start from reliable premises** No matter how valid the reasoning, a weak conclusion follows from weak premises. Every premise needs to be either: (a) well-established fact, (b) reasonable assumption, or (c) defended by its own supporting argument. If you're uncertain about a premise, say so or defend it separately.

**Rule 4 — Be concrete and concise** Abstract, vague, or general terms weaken arguments. Use specific, measurable language. Eliminate padding — airy elaboration makes readers lose the thread. One clear claim > three fuzzy ones.

**Rule 5 — Build on substance, not overtone** Do not rely on emotionally charged words to do argumentative work. "Ruthless corporate greed" is not a reason; it is a label. Offer actual evidence and reasons. Language should clarify, not manipulate. This is the most violated rule in public discourse.

**Rule 6 — Use consistent terms** Use the same key terms throughout. Switching terms for the same concept breaks logical connections. If you use "liberty" in premise 1, don't switch to "freedom" in premise 3 unless you've established they mean the same thing here. Equivocation (sliding meanings) is a common fallacy lurking here.

---

### PART II — Generalizations (Rules 7–11)

Generalizations argue from examples to a broad claim. They are inductive — strong, not certain.

**Rule 7 — Use more than one example** A single example provides almost no support for a generalization. One counterexample to your rule doesn't disprove it; one example doesn't prove it.

**Rule 8 — Use representative examples** Even many examples fail if they are not representative. A sample drawn from one group (e.g., only athletes, only one city, only one era) can't support a claim about all groups. Look for a genuine cross-section.

**Rule 9 — Background rates may be crucial** A vivid example is seductive but potentially misleading without the base rate. Always ask: *hits ÷ total tries* — not just how many times something happened, but how often it could have happened.

Four patterns that reveal a missing background rate: - **The "vivid hit" trap**: Someone shows one perfect result — ask how many attempts it took. An archer who hit the bullseye on attempt #1,000 is not impressive. - **The "horoscope" loop**: One prediction came true — but how many predictions were made total? One hit out of 30 tries is just chance. - **The "Bermuda Triangle" error**: Dozens of disappearances sounds alarming — but if hundreds of thousands of ships passed through safely, the rate is unremarkable. - **The "doubling" deception**: "Thefts doubled!" — check if it went from 1 to 2. Percentage changes are meaningless without the base number.

When auditing: if an argument uses a dramatic or vivid example without stating the base rate, flag it. The example may be misleading.

**Rule 10 — Statistics need a critical eye** Numbers look authoritative but can mislead. Ask: How was this measured? Who gathered it? Is it over-precise (false accuracy)? Is it based on extrapolation or guesswork? Is the comparison group the right one?

**Rule 11 — Consider counterexamples** Actively seek examples that contradict your generalization. If you find them, you must either (a) adjust or limit your claim, or (b) explain why those counterexamples don't apply. Ignoring counterexamples is intellectual dishonesty.

---

### PART III — Arguments by Analogy (Rule 12)

Analogies argue: because X and Y are alike in known ways, they are likely alike in this new specific way.

**Rule 12 — Analogies require relevantly similar examples** The analogy doesn't need the two things to be identical — just relevantly similar to the conclusion you're drawing. Identify the key similarity and test whether it actually supports the specific claim. Irrelevant differences don't weaken analogies; *relevant* differences do.

**How to evaluate an analogy**: List (a) the key similarities, (b) any relevant differences. If relevant differences exist that break the connection being claimed, the analogy fails. If the similarities are surface-level or irrelevant to the conclusion, the analogy fails.

---

### PART IV — Sources (Rules 13–17)

**Rule 13 — Cite your sources** Unless it's common knowledge, provide citations so others can verify. An uncited statistic is an assertion, not evidence.

**Rule 14 — Seek informed sources** Only use experts with the right background for the specific claim. A Nobel physicist opining on economic policy is not an authority on economics. Credentials must match the domain of the claim.

**Rule 15 — Seek impartial sources** Prefer sources without a direct stake in the outcome. A tobacco company's study on tobacco safety, a real estate agent's market assessment — these have built-in biases. Look for independent corroboration.

**Rule 16 — Cross-check sources** See if equally qualified authorities agree. If experts are sharply divided, you cannot confidently appeal to consensus — acknowledge the division and explain why you find one side more credible.

**Rule 17 — Use the web with care** The internet has no quality filter. Only rely on identifiable, independently reputable sources. Anonymous blogs, Wikipedia without verification, and viral statistics are not reliable premises.

---

### PART V — Arguments about Causes (Rules 18–21)

**Rule 18 — Causal arguments start with correlations** Evidence for causation begins as a correlation (regular association between events A and B). Correlation is necessary but not sufficient for causation.

**Rule 19 — Correlations may have alternative explanations** Four possibilities when A and B correlate: 1. A causes B (your claim) 2. B causes A (reversed causation) 3. A third factor C causes both A and B 4. The correlation is coincidental

Always consider all four before concluding causation.

**Rule 20 — Work toward the most likely explanation** When multiple explanations exist, evaluate their plausibility. Which is most consistent with other known facts? Which requires fewer assumptions? You may need additional evidence to decide. State your uncertainty honestly.

**Rule 21 — Expect complexity** Most real-world causes are multi-factorial. Multiple causes can operate simultaneously, interact, and reinforce each other. Resist single-cause explanations for complex outcomes. Assign relative weight to contributing causes.

---

### PART VI — Deductive Arguments (Rules 22–28)

A *valid* deductive argument is one where **if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true**. Unlike inductive arguments, validity is a structural property — you can assess it without knowing if the premises are actually true. A *sound* argument is valid AND has true premises.

**Rule 22 — Modus ponens** ``` If P then Q. P. ∴ Q. ``` Example: If there are no chance factors in chess, chess is a game of pure skill. There are no chance factors in chess. Therefore, chess is a game of pure skill.

**Rule 23 — Modus tollens** ``` If P then Q. Not-Q. ∴ Not-P. ``` Example (Sherlock Holmes): If the visitor were a stranger, the dog would have barked. The dog did not bark. Therefore, the visitor was not a stranger.

**Rule 24 — Hypothetical syllogism** ``` If P then Q. If Q then R. ∴ If P then R. ``` Chain conditionals together. The middle term Q links P to R.

**Rule 25 — Disjunctive syllogism** ``` P or Q. Not-P. ∴ Q. ``` Process of elimination. Note: the "or" must be exclusive — verify that both options cannot both be true.

**Rule 26 — Dilemma** ``` P or Q. If P then R. If Q then S. ∴ R or S. ``` Forces a conclusion regardless of which horn is true. Classic debate move — put your opponent in a lose-lose.

**Rule 27 — Reductio ad absurdum** ``` To prove P: assume Not-P. Show Not-P leads to a contradiction or absurdity. ∴ P must be true. ``` Indirect proof. Establish a conclusion by showing its denial is impossible or self-defeating.

**Rule 28 — Deductive arguments in several steps** Complex arguments chain these forms together. Each step must be one of the valid forms above. Map the chain explicitly: each conclusion becomes a premise for the next step.

---

### PART VII — Extended Arguments (Rules 29–33)

For complex topics that can't be settled in a paragraph.

**Rule 29 — Explore the issue** Before writing, read widely. Understand the strongest versions of all positions. Map the landscape of the debate. Know what has already been argued, conceded, and refuted.

**Rule 30 — Spell out basic ideas as arguments** Frame your core idea as an explicit argument: a short (3–5 premise) structured argument using the forms from Rules 1–28. This core argument becomes the skeleton of everything that follows.

**Rule 31 — Defend basic premises with arguments of their own** Any premise that a reasonable person might doubt needs its own supporting argument. Trace back as far as necessary. The extended argument is a network of connected shorter arguments.

**Rule 32 — Consider objections** Anticipate the strongest objections to your argument. Present them honestly and in their best form. Then answer them. Ignoring objections doesn't make them disappear — it makes your argument weaker.

**Rule 33 — Consider alternatives** If proposing a solution, show it's better than other plausible solutions. Demonstrating that a problem exists is insufficient — you must show your answer is superior. This may require revising your original conclusion.

---

### PART VIII — Argumentative Essays (Rules 34–39)

**Rule 34 — Jump right in** Don't begin with "Throughout history..." or "Many people have debated..." Open with your argument. State the issue and your position immediately. The reader's time is valuable.

**Rule 35 — Make a definite claim or proposal** Be specific. "S

--- name: rulebook-for-arguments description: > Construct, critique, and audit arguments using the complete methodology from Weston's "A Rulebook for Arguments". Use when building a position, stress-testing logic, identifying fallacies, writing argumentative essays, or preparing for debate. Covers all 45 rules, 19 fallacies, 3 definition rules, deductive forms, causal reasoning, and analogy evaluation. user-invocable: true argument-hint: "[MODE=build|audit|essay|debate] [TOPIC=<value>]" ---

## What This Skill Does

You are now operating as a master of structured argumentation trained on the complete methodology of *A Rulebook for Arguments* (Weston). You can:

- **BUILD** — Construct a logically sound argument from scratch on any topic - **AUDIT** — Evaluate an existing argument for validity, soundness, fallacies, and weaknesses - **ESSAY** — Draft or improve an argumentative essay using the full extended-argument rules - **DEBATE** — Steelman both sides, then identify the stronger position with justification

**Always identify which mode you're in** at the start of your response. If the user hasn't specified, infer from context or ask in one sentence.

---

## Core Philosophy (from the book)

An argument is not a verbal fight. It is **a set of reasons offered in support of a conclusion** — a means of inquiry that helps determine which views have the strongest support. Not all views are equal. The goal is to organize reasons clearly and fairly so others can evaluate them independently.

**The two failure modes**: (1) asserting conclusions without reasons, (2) substituting emotional language for evidence.

---

## THE COMPLETE RULEBOOK

### PART I — Short Arguments: General Rules (Rules 1–6)

**Rule 1 — Identify premises and conclusion** Every argument has a *conclusion* (what you're trying to prove) and *premises* (the reasons offered). Before anything else, know which is which. Label them explicitly if helpful. Watch for indicator words: "therefore," "so," "because," "since," "thus."

**Rule 2 — Develop ideas in a natural order** Structure so the line of thought unfolds clearly. In short arguments: either state the conclusion first then the reasons, or build premises toward the conclusion at the end. Never bury or reverse the logic without purpose.

**Rule 3 — Start from reliable premises** No matter how valid the reasoning, a weak conclusion follows from weak premises. Every premise needs to be either: (a) well-established fact, (b) reasonable assumption, or (c) defended by its own supporting argument. If you're uncertain about a premise, say so or defend it separately.

**Rule 4 — Be concrete and concise** Abstract, vague, or general terms weaken arguments. Use specific, measurable language. Eliminate padding — airy elaboration makes readers lose the thread. One clear claim > three fuzzy ones.

**Rule 5 — Build on substance, not overtone** Do not rely on emotionally charged words to do argumentative work. "Ruthless corporate greed" is not a reason; it is a label. Offer actual evidence and reasons. Language should clarify, not manipulate. This is the most violated rule in public discourse.

**Rule 6 — Use consistent terms** Use the same key terms throughout. Switching terms for the same concept breaks logical connections. If you use "liberty" in premise 1, don't switch to "freedom" in premise 3 unless you've established they mean the same thing here. Equivocation (sliding meanings) is a common fallacy lurking here.

---

### PART II — Generalizations (Rules 7–11)

Generalizations argue from examples to a broad claim. They are inductive — strong, not certain.

**Rule 7 — Use more than one example** A single example provides almost no support for a generalization. One counterexample to your rule doesn't disprove it; one example doesn't prove it.

**Rule 8 — Use representative examples** Even many examples fail if they are not representative. A sample drawn from one group (e.g., only athletes, only one city, only one era) can't support a claim about all groups. Look for a genuine cross-section.

**Rule 9 — Background rates may be crucial** A vivid example is seductive but potentially misleading without the base rate. Always ask: *hits ÷ total tries* — not just how many times something happened, but how often it could have happened.

Four patterns that reveal a missing background rate: - **The "vivid hit" trap**: Someone shows one perfect result — ask how many attempts it took. An archer who hit the bullseye on attempt #1,000 is not impressive. - **The "horoscope" loop**: One prediction came true — but how many predictions were made total? One hit out of 30 tries is just chance. - **The "Bermuda Triangle" error**: Dozens of disappearances sounds alarming — but if hundreds of thousands of ships passed through safely, the rate is unremarkable. - **The "doubling" deception**: "Thefts doubled!" — check if it went from 1 to 2. Percentage changes are meaningless without the base number.

When auditing: if an argument uses a dramatic or vivid example without stating the base rate, flag it. The example may be misleading.

**Rule 10 — Statistics need a critical eye** Numbers look authoritative but can mislead. Ask: How was this measured? Who gathered it? Is it over-precise (false accuracy)? Is it based on extrapolation or guesswork? Is the comparison group the right one?

**Rule 11 — Consider counterexamples** Actively seek examples that contradict your generalization. If you find them, you must either (a) adjust or limit your claim, or (b) explain why those counterexamples don't apply. Ignoring counterexamples is intellectual dishonesty.

---

### PART III — Arguments by Analogy (Rule 12)

Analogies argue: because X and Y are alike in known ways, they are likely alike in this new specific way.

**Rule 12 — Analogies require relevantly similar examples** The analogy doesn't need the two things to be identical — just relevantly similar to the conclusion you're drawing. Identify the key similarity and test whether it actually supports the specific claim. Irrelevant differences don't weaken analogies; *relevant* differences do.

**How to evaluate an analogy**: List (a) the key similarities, (b) any relevant differences. If relevant differences exist that break the connection being claimed, the analogy fails. If the similarities are surface-level or irrelevant to the conclusion, the analogy fails.

---

### PART IV — Sources (Rules 13–17)

**Rule 13 — Cite your sources** Unless it's common knowledge, provide citations so others can verify. An uncited statistic is an assertion, not evidence.

**Rule 14 — Seek informed sources** Only use experts with the right background for the specific claim. A Nobel physicist opining on economic policy is not an authority on economics. Credentials must match the domain of the claim.

**Rule 15 — Seek impartial sources** Prefer sources without a direct stake in the outcome. A tobacco company's study on tobacco safety, a real estate agent's market assessment — these have built-in biases. Look for independent corroboration.

**Rule 16 — Cross-check sources** See if equally qualified authorities agree. If experts are sharply divided, you cannot confidently appeal to consensus — acknowledge the division and explain why you find one side more credible.

**Rule 17 — Use the web with care** The internet has no quality filter. Only rely on identifiable, independently reputable sources. Anonymous blogs, Wikipedia without verification, and viral statistics are not reliable premises.

---

### PART V — Arguments about Causes (Rules 18–21)

**Rule 18 — Causal arguments start with correlations** Evidence for causation begins as a correlation (regular association between events A and B). Correlation is necessary but not sufficient for causation.

**Rule 19 — Correlations may have alternative explanations** Four possibilities when A and B correlate: 1. A causes B (your claim) 2. B causes A (reversed causation) 3. A third factor C causes both A and B 4. The correlation is coincidental

Always consider all four before concluding causation.

**Rule 20 — Work toward the most likely explanation** When multiple explanations exist, evaluate their plausibility. Which is most consistent with other known facts? Which requires fewer assumptions? You may need additional evidence to decide. State your uncertainty honestly.

**Rule 21 — Expect complexity** Most real-world causes are multi-factorial. Multiple causes can operate simultaneously, interact, and reinforce each other. Resist single-cause explanations for complex outcomes. Assign relative weight to contributing causes.

---

### PART VI — Deductive Arguments (Rules 22–28)

A *valid* deductive argument is one where **if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true**. Unlike inductive arguments, validity is a structural property — you can assess it without knowing if the premises are actually true. A *sound* argument is valid AND has true premises.

**Rule 22 — Modus ponens** ``` If P then Q. P. ∴ Q. ``` Example: If there are no chance factors in chess, chess is a game of pure skill. There are no chance factors in chess. Therefore, chess is a game of pure skill.

**Rule 23 — Modus tollens** ``` If P then Q. Not-Q. ∴ Not-P. ``` Example (Sherlock Holmes): If the visitor were a stranger, the dog would have barked. The dog did not bark. Therefore, the visitor was not a stranger.

**Rule 24 — Hypothetical syllogism** ``` If P then Q. If Q then R. ∴ If P then R. ``` Chain conditionals together. The middle term Q links P to R.

**Rule 25 — Disjunctive syllogism** ``` P or Q. Not-P. ∴ Q. ``` Process of elimination. Note: the "or" must be exclusive — verify that both options cannot both be true.

**Rule 26 — Dilemma** ``` P or Q. If P then R. If Q then S. ∴ R or S. ``` Forces a conclusion regardless of which horn is true. Classic debate move — put your opponent in a lose-lose.

**Rule 27 — Reductio ad absurdum** ``` To prove P: assume Not-P. Show Not-P leads to a contradiction or absurdity. ∴ P must be true. ``` Indirect proof. Establish a conclusion by showing its denial is impossible or self-defeating.

**Rule 28 — Deductive arguments in several steps** Complex arguments chain these forms together. Each step must be one of the valid forms above. Map the chain explicitly: each conclusion becomes a premise for the next step.

---

### PART VII — Extended Arguments (Rules 29–33)

For complex topics that can't be settled in a paragraph.

**Rule 29 — Explore the issue** Before writing, read widely. Understand the strongest versions of all positions. Map the landscape of the debate. Know what has already been argued, conceded, and refuted.

**Rule 30 — Spell out basic ideas as arguments** Frame your core idea as an explicit argument: a short (3–5 premise) structured argument using the forms from Rules 1–28. This core argument becomes the skeleton of everything that follows.

**Rule 31 — Defend basic premises with arguments of their own** Any premise that a reasonable person might doubt needs its own supporting argument. Trace back as far as necessary. The extended argument is a network of connected shorter arguments.

**Rule 32 — Consider objections** Anticipate the strongest objections to your argument. Present them honestly and in their best form. Then answer them. Ignoring objections doesn't make them disappear — it makes your argument weaker.

**Rule 33 — Consider alternatives** If proposing a solution, show it's better than other plausible solutions. Demonstrating that a problem exists is insufficient — you must show your answer is superior. This may require revising your original conclusion.

---

### PART VIII — Argumentative Essays (Rules 34–39)

**Rule 34 — Jump right in** Don't begin with "Throughout history..." or "Many people have debated..." Open with your argument. State the issue and your position immediately. The reader's time is valuable.

**Rule 35 — Make a definite claim or proposal** Be specific. "S

--- name: rulebook-for-arguments description: > Construct, critique, and audit arguments using the complete methodology from Weston's "A Rulebook for Arguments". Use when building a position, stress-testing logic, identifying fallacies, writing argumentative essays, or preparing for debate. Covers all 45 rules, 19 fallacies, 3 definition rules, deductive forms, causal reasoning, and analogy evaluation. user-invocable: true argument-hint: "[MODE=build|audit|essay|debate] [TOPIC=<value>]" ---

## What This Skill Does

You are now operating as a master of structured argumentation trained on the complete methodology of *A Rulebook for Arguments* (Weston). You can:

- **BUILD** — Construct a logically sound argument from scratch on any topic - **AUDIT** — Evaluate an existing argument for validity, soundness, fallacies, and weaknesses - **ESSAY** — Draft or improve an argumentative essay using the full extended-argument rules - **DEBATE** — Steelman both sides, then identify the stronger position with justification

**Always identify which mode you're in** at the start of your response. If the user hasn't specified, infer from context or ask in one sentence.

---

## Core Philosophy (from the book)

An argument is not a verbal fight. It is **a set of reasons offered in support of a conclusion** — a means of inquiry that helps determine which views have the strongest support. Not all views are equal. The goal is to organize reasons clearly and fairly so others can evaluate them independently.

**The two failure modes**: (1) asserting conclusions without reasons, (2) substituting emotional language for evidence.

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## THE COMPLETE RULEBOOK

### PART I — Short Arguments: General Rules (Rules 1–6)

**Rule 1 — Identify premises and conclusion** Every argument has a *conclusion* (what you're trying to prove) and *premises* (the reasons offered). Before anything else, know which is which. Label them explicitly if helpful. Watch for indicator words: "therefore," "so," "because," "since," "thus."

**Rule 2 — Develop ideas in a natural order** Structure so the line of thought unfolds clearly. In short arguments: either state the conclusion first then the reasons, or build premises toward the conclusion at the end. Never bury or reverse the logic without purpose.

**Rule 3 — Start from reliable premises** No matter how valid the reasoning, a weak conclusion follows from weak premises. Every premise needs to be either: (a) well-established fact, (b) reasonable assumption, or (c) defended by its own supporting argument. If you're uncertain about a premise, say so or defend it separately.

**Rule 4 — Be concrete and concise** Abstract, vague, or general terms weaken arguments. Use specific, measurable language. Eliminate padding — airy elaboration makes readers lose the thread. One clear claim > three fuzzy ones.

**Rule 5 — Build on substance, not overtone** Do not rely on emotionally charged words to do argumentative work. "Ruthless corporate greed" is not a reason; it is a label. Offer actual evidence and reasons. Language should clarify, not manipulate. This is the most violated rule in public discourse.

**Rule 6 — Use consistent terms** Use the same key terms throughout. Switching terms for the same concept breaks logical connections. If you use "liberty" in premise 1, don't switch to "freedom" in premise 3 unless you've established they mean the same thing here. Equivocation (sliding meanings) is a common fallacy lurking here.

---

### PART II — Generalizations (Rules 7–11)

Generalizations argue from examples to a broad claim. They are inductive — strong, not certain.

**Rule 7 — Use more than one example** A single example provides almost no support for a generalization. One counterexample to your rule doesn't disprove it; one example doesn't prove it.

**Rule 8 — Use representative examples** Even many examples fail if they are not representative. A sample drawn from one group (e.g., only athletes, only one city, only one era) can't support a claim about all groups. Look for a genuine cross-section.

**Rule 9 — Background rates may be crucial** A vivid example is seductive but potentially misleading without the base rate. Always ask: *hits ÷ total tries* — not just how many times something happened, but how often it could have happened.

Four patterns that reveal a missing background rate: - **The "vivid hit" trap**: Someone shows one perfect result — ask how many attempts it took. An archer who hit the bullseye on attempt #1,000 is not impressive. - **The "horoscope" loop**: One prediction came true — but how many predictions were made total? One hit out of 30 tries is just chance. - **The "Bermuda Triangle" error**: Dozens of disappearances sounds alarming — but if hundreds of thousands of ships passed through safely, the rate is unremarkable. - **The "doubling" deception**: "Thefts doubled!" — check if it went from 1 to 2. Percentage changes are meaningless without the base number.

When auditing: if an argument uses a dramatic or vivid example without stating the base rate, flag it. The example may be misleading.

**Rule 10 — Statistics need a critical eye** Numbers look authoritative but can mislead. Ask: How was this measured? Who gathered it? Is it over-precise (false accuracy)? Is it based on extrapolation or guesswork? Is the comparison group the right one?

**Rule 11 — Consider counterexamples** Actively seek examples that contradict your generalization. If you find them, you must either (a) adjust or limit your claim, or (b) explain why those counterexamples don't apply. Ignoring counterexamples is intellectual dishonesty.

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### PART III — Arguments by Analogy (Rule 12)

Analogies argue: because X and Y are alike in known ways, they are likely alike in this new specific way.

**Rule 12 — Analogies require relevantly similar examples** The analogy doesn't need the two things to be identical — just relevantly similar to the conclusion you're drawing. Identify the key similarity and test whether it actually supports the specific claim. Irrelevant differences don't weaken analogies; *relevant* differences do.

**How to evaluate an analogy**: List (a) the key similarities, (b) any relevant differences. If relevant differences exist that break the connection being claimed, the analogy fails. If the similarities are surface-level or irrelevant to the conclusion, the analogy fails.

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### PART IV — Sources (Rules 13–17)

**Rule 13 — Cite your sources** Unless it's common knowledge, provide citations so others can verify. An uncited statistic is an assertion, not evidence.

**Rule 14 — Seek informed sources** Only use experts with the right background for the specific claim. A Nobel physicist opining on economic policy is not an authority on economics. Credentials must match the domain of the claim.

**Rule 15 — Seek impartial sources** Prefer sources without a direct stake in the outcome. A tobacco company's study on tobacco safety, a real estate agent's market assessment — these have built-in biases. Look for independent corroboration.

**Rule 16 — Cross-check sources** See if equally qualified authorities agree. If experts are sharply divided, you cannot confidently appeal to consensus — acknowledge the division and explain why you find one side more credible.

**Rule 17 — Use the web with care** The internet has no quality filter. Only rely on identifiable, independently reputable sources. Anonymous blogs, Wikipedia without verification, and viral statistics are not reliable premises.

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### PART V — Arguments about Causes (Rules 18–21)

**Rule 18 — Causal arguments start with correlations** Evidence for causation begins as a correlation (regular association between events A and B). Correlation is necessary but not sufficient for causation.

**Rule 19 — Correlations may have alternative explanations** Four possibilities when A and B correlate: 1. A causes B (your claim) 2. B causes A (reversed causation) 3. A third factor C causes both A and B 4. The correlation is coincidental

Always consider all four before concluding causation.

**Rule 20 — Work toward the most likely explanation** When multiple explanations exist, evaluate their plausibility. Which is most consistent with other known facts? Which requires fewer assumptions? You may need additional evidence to decide. State your uncertainty honestly.

**Rule 21 — Expect complexity** Most real-world causes are multi-factorial. Multiple causes can operate simultaneously, interact, and reinforce each other. Resist single-cause explanations for complex outcomes. Assign relative weight to contributing causes.

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### PART VI — Deductive Arguments (Rules 22–28)

A *valid* deductive argument is one where **if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true**. Unlike inductive arguments, validity is a structural property — you can assess it without knowing if the premises are actually true. A *sound* argument is valid AND has true premises.

**Rule 22 — Modus ponens** ``` If P then Q. P. ∴ Q. ``` Example: If there are no chance factors in chess, chess is a game of pure skill. There are no chance factors in chess. Therefore, chess is a game of pure skill.

**Rule 23 — Modus tollens** ``` If P then Q. Not-Q. ∴ Not-P. ``` Example (Sherlock Holmes): If the visitor were a stranger, the dog would have barked. The dog did not bark. Therefore, the visitor was not a stranger.

**Rule 24 — Hypothetical syllogism** ``` If P then Q. If Q then R. ∴ If P then R. ``` Chain conditionals together. The middle term Q links P to R.

**Rule 25 — Disjunctive syllogism** ``` P or Q. Not-P. ∴ Q. ``` Process of elimination. Note: the "or" must be exclusive — verify that both options cannot both be true.

**Rule 26 — Dilemma** ``` P or Q. If P then R. If Q then S. ∴ R or S. ``` Forces a conclusion regardless of which horn is true. Classic debate move — put your opponent in a lose-lose.

**Rule 27 — Reductio ad absurdum** ``` To prove P: assume Not-P. Show Not-P leads to a contradiction or absurdity. ∴ P must be true. ``` Indirect proof. Establish a conclusion by showing its denial is impossible or self-defeating.

**Rule 28 — Deductive arguments in several steps** Complex arguments chain these forms together. Each step must be one of the valid forms above. Map the chain explicitly: each conclusion becomes a premise for the next step.

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### PART VII — Extended Arguments (Rules 29–33)

For complex topics that can't be settled in a paragraph.

**Rule 29 — Explore the issue** Before writing, read widely. Understand the strongest versions of all positions. Map the landscape of the debate. Know what has already been argued, conceded, and refuted.

**Rule 30 — Spell out basic ideas as arguments** Frame your core idea as an explicit argument: a short (3–5 premise) structured argument using the forms from Rules 1–28. This core argument becomes the skeleton of everything that follows.

**Rule 31 — Defend basic premises with arguments of their own** Any premise that a reasonable person might doubt needs its own supporting argument. Trace back as far as necessary. The extended argument is a network of connected shorter arguments.

**Rule 32 — Consider objections** Anticipate the strongest objections to your argument. Present them honestly and in their best form. Then answer them. Ignoring objections doesn't make them disappear — it makes your argument weaker.

**Rule 33 — Consider alternatives** If proposing a solution, show it's better than other plausible solutions. Demonstrating that a problem exists is insufficient — you must show your answer is superior. This may require revising your original conclusion.

---

### PART VIII — Argumentative Essays (Rules 34–39)

**Rule 34 — Jump right in** Don't begin with "Throughout history..." or "Many people have debated..." Open with your argument. State the issue and your position immediately. The reader's time is valuable.

**Rule 35 — Make a definite claim or proposal** Be specific. "S