OpenAgentSkill Registry Manifest
Skill: thinking-probabilistic
Slug: tjboudreaux-thinking-probabilistic
Category: automation
Description: Use when forecasting, estimating, or sizing risk — anchor on base rates, give ranges, update prior→likelihood→posterior on evidence, and factor unmeasured quantities into order-of-magnitude bounds.

Agent fit:
- Decision: 89/100 Production-ready
- Primary fit: Finance and quant
- Role: Primary pick

Supply profile:
- Track: Research and knowledge work
- Scenario: Research agents
- Applicable agents: Claude Code, CLI, Codex, Cursor
- Maintenance: 29d since push
- Risk: Safe to try

Trust:
- Trust score: 83/100 Strong shortlist
- Audit: 86/100 Safe to try

Attribution:
- Status: Registry indexed
- Source: github fast track
- Creator: tjboudreaux
- Claim URL: https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/tjboudreaux-thinking-probabilistic#claim-this-skill

Install:
npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-probabilistic

URLs:
- Web: https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/tjboudreaux-thinking-probabilistic
- API: https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/skills/tjboudreaux-thinking-probabilistic
- Install API: https://www.openagentskill.com/api/skills/tjboudreaux-thinking-probabilistic/install
- Repository: https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/tree/main/skills/thinking-probabilistic