{"slug":"rollingsirius-equity-research-skill","name":"Equity Research Skill","description":"可能是最深度的 AI 投研报告 Skill：九章个股深研 + 九章财报深度分析，脚本化 DCF/EPV 与可复算估值","long_description":"# 个股投研报告 Skill（v2）\n\n作者：[@rollingSirius](https://x.com/rollingSirius)\n\n英文文档：[README.en.md](README.en.md)\n\n**可能是最深度的 AI 投研报告 Skill。**\n\n这个 skill 的目标不是生成几段股票摘要，而是让 AI 工具按接近机构投研的纪律完成一份**事实可追溯、估值可复算、结论可审计**的深度个股研究报告。v2 在深度上再进一级：以**预期差**（市场隐含 vs 独立预期）为整份报告的分析主线，加入**财报质量核查**、**EVA/剩余收益**、**蒙特卡洛**、**反方论证复核**与**仓位思维**，行业附录扩至 16 类。\n\n## 核心定位（v2）\n\n| 能力 | 设计要求 |\n|---|---|\n| 预期差分析主线 | 反向 DCF + PVGO 分解解码\"现价定价了什么\"，产出预期差 Gap 表与可证伪的分歧命题；无分歧不给买卖动作（独立观点检验） |\n| 财报质量核查 | 应计质量、Beneish M-Score、DSO/递延背离、资本化政策、治理信号 → 财报可信度 A–D 分级，C/D 直接否决买入动作 |\n| 可复算估值 | 反向 DCF、三情景概率加权、EPV/三要素、**EVA/剩余收益**、合理倍数相对估值、SOTP，全部由 `scripts/dcf.py` 执行、假设 JSON 留档；可选**蒙特卡洛**输出公允价值分布与 P(loss) |\n| 外部视角 | 关键假设对照 `base-rates.md` 历史分布标分位；超越基准率必须给结构性理由；终值执行\"终值合理性三查\" |\n| 反方论证与仓位 | 成稿前 Pre-mortem（至少一条直击核心论点）；期望收益 EV、上行/下行不对称比、Kelly-lite 量级参考 |\n| 深度财报模式 | 九章财报深度分析：预期差质量、GAAP/Non-GAAP、现金流、电话会措辞、模型与估值变动桥；无旧报告自动建首次覆盖基线 |\n| 16 类行业附录 | 各行业专用 KPI、模型、估值与反证框架（见下表） |\n| 来源纪律 | 来源+时间戳、冲突对账、缺失写\"未获取到\"、外部内容防注入、任何情况下不执行交易 |\n| 多市场覆盖 | 美股、港股、A股、A/H 双重上市对比、中概 VIE/ADR 结构风险定价 |\n\n## 输出物\n\n**交付给用户的只有一份报告，默认 PDF 格式**：\n\n- 用户未指明格式时，一律生成并交付 **PDF**（由 Markdown 源稿转换，确保中文字体与表格渲染）。\n- 用户可显式指定 `.md`、`.docx` 或 `.xlsx`（估值 workbook：假设/DCF/情景/输出四页）。\n- 报告头部为\"结论框 + Tearsheet + 预期差 Gap 表\"三件套，60 秒读完决策要点；估值章含文本版 football field 图。\n- 估值假设 JSON、脚本输出、检查器结果、财务 CSV 均为**内部工作文件**：保留在工作目录供复算与追溯，关键内容以摘要写入报告附录，但**不作为交付物**；用户索要时才提供。\n\n## 行业附录（16 类）\n\n主报告不给所有公司套同一个模板。skill 先识别公司所处价值链，再按需加载对应附录，各附录分别改变 KPI、模型、估值与反证框架：\n\n| 行业 | 重点关注指标 |\n|---|---|\n| SaaS / 订阅软件 | ARR、NRR、RPO/cRPO、获客效率（CAC/LTV）、Rule of 40、SBC 与稀释、反向 DCF |\n| 半导体 | 终端/产品拆分、units × ASP、库存周期、良率与产能利用率、backlog、出口管制、跨周期归一化估值 |\n| 银行 | NIM、存款 beta、资产质量与拨备、CET1、流动性覆盖、P/TBV–ROTCE |\n| 保险 | 承保利润、combined ratio、准备金充足性、VNB/CSM、偿付能力、投资组合质量、P/EV |\n| 医药 | 临床证据与成功概率（PoS）、患者漏斗、专利/独占期、现金 runway、逐资产 rNPV |\n| 消费 | 量价拆分、同店增速、渠道 sell-through、库存健康度、品牌份额、单位经济 |\n| 能源 | 产量与储量、递减率、成本曲线位置、价差/套保、维持性 capex、NAV |\n| 公用事业 | rate base、核准/实际 ROE、监管案件周期、资本项目、融资稀释、股息覆盖 |\n| 互联网/平台 | 用户 × 时长 × 变现率、GMV/take rate、履约与获客单位经济、分部 SOTP、监管风险、SBC 后 FCF |\n| 支付/金融科技 | TPV、净","tagline":"可能是最深度的 AI 投研报告 Skill：九章个股深研 + 九章财报深度分析，脚本化 DCF/EPV 与可复算估值","category":"utility","tags":["agent-skill","skill","agent","skill-name","python"],"author":"rollingSirius","verified":true,"attribution":{"status":"community_indexed","statusLabel":"Community indexed","shortLabel":"COMMUNITY INDEXED","sourceLabel":"OpenAgentSkill auto-indexer","sourceDetail":"rollingSirius/equity-research-skill","creatorName":"rollingSirius","creatorUrl":"https://github.com/rollingSirius","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/rollingSirius/equity-research-skill","indexedBy":"OpenAgentSkill community index","claimUrl":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/rollingsirius-equity-research-skill#claim-this-skill","claimCta":"Claim this skill","trustNote":"This listing was indexed from public sources and is not marked official until a maintainer claim is approved.","publicNote":"Attribution links to the public repository or creator profile. Creators can claim the listing to update ownership signals."},"stats":{"stars":234,"forks":37,"verified_installs":0,"successful_runs":0,"total_outcomes":0,"rating":0,"review_count":0,"quality_score":59.95},"quality":{"score":94,"tier":"excellent","label":"Excellent","summary":"High-confidence pick with strong adoption and healthy maintenance signals.","signals":[{"label":"GitHub stars","value":"234","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Freshness","value":"1mo ago","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Install ready","value":"Yes","tone":"positive"},{"label":"License","value":"MIT","tone":"neutral"}],"warnings":[]},"trust":{"version":"trust-score-v5","score":76,"base_score":84,"outcome_confidence":0,"tier":"strong","label":"Review then install","summary":"Good shortlist signal, but the agent should review audit notes, install policy, and outcome evidence before running it.","recommendedAction":"Use as the primary candidate after human or sandbox review.","decision":{"install_policy":"human_review_before_install","auto_install_allowed":false,"human_review_required":true,"sandbox_first":true,"agent_action":"Ask for approval or run a sandbox-only trial before installing.","reasoning":["76/100 Trust Score v5","84/100 Trust Score v4 baseline","Needs more real agent outcomes before unattended install","Install path is missing","Review before production"],"review_required_when":["The workspace contains production secrets, payments, private customer data, or irreversible actions.","The install command requests shell, network, credential, database, or broad filesystem access.","Outcome evidence is missing, recently failed, or required human review.","Production credentials, payments, or irreversible account changes without explicit human review","Sensitive private data before reviewing repository code, license, and permission surface","Automatic installation in a production workspace"]},"dimensions":[{"id":"github_adoption","label":"GitHub adoption","score":62,"weight":0.13,"status":"info","detail":"234 GitHub stars"},{"id":"repo_activity","label":"Stars/forks activity","score":57,"weight":0.08,"status":"warn","detail":"234 stars, 37 forks; issue activity unavailable in current metadata"},{"id":"maintenance","label":"Recent maintenance","score":88,"weight":0.14,"status":"pass","detail":"1mo since push"},{"id":"license","label":"License clarity","score":86,"weight":0.09,"status":"pass","detail":"MIT"},{"id":"documentation","label":"README/SKILL.md completeness","score":84,"weight":0.14,"status":"pass","detail":"Metadata includes enough usage and workflow context"},{"id":"dependency_risk","label":"Dependency/runtime risk","score":90,"weight":0.12,"status":"pass","detail":"no major dependency risk hints in public metadata"},{"id":"installability","label":"Install availability","score":92,"weight":0.1,"status":"pass","detail":"npx skills add rollingSirius/equity-research-skill"},{"id":"install_safety","label":"Install command safety","score":92,"weight":0.1,"status":"pass","detail":"standard package or runtime install path"},{"id":"permission_surface","label":"Permission surface","score":86,"weight":0.07,"status":"pass","detail":"filesystem or document access"},{"id":"repository","label":"Repository evidence","score":86,"weight":0.04,"status":"pass","detail":"https://github.com/rollingSirius/equity-research-skill"},{"id":"review_status","label":"Review status","score":88,"weight":0.05,"status":"pass","detail":"AI review data available"},{"id":"agent_outcomes","label":"Agent Proven outcomes","score":54,"weight":0.13,"status":"info","detail":"No agent outcome data yet"}],"checks":[{"status":"info","label":"GitHub adoption","detail":"234 GitHub stars"},{"status":"warn","label":"Stars/forks activity","detail":"234 stars, 37 forks; issue activity unavailable in current metadata"},{"status":"pass","label":"Recent maintenance","detail":"1mo since push"},{"status":"pass","label":"License clarity","detail":"MIT"},{"status":"pass","label":"README/SKILL.md completeness","detail":"Metadata includes enough usage and workflow context"},{"status":"pass","label":"Dependency/runtime risk","detail":"no major dependency risk hints in public metadata"},{"status":"pass","label":"Install availability","detail":"npx skills add rollingSirius/equity-research-skill"},{"status":"pass","label":"Install command safety","detail":"standard package or runtime install path"},{"status":"pass","label":"Permission surface","detail":"filesystem or document access"},{"status":"pass","label":"Repository evidence","detail":"https://github.com/rollingSirius/equity-research-skill"},{"status":"pass","label":"Review status","detail":"AI review data available"},{"status":"info","label":"Agent Proven outcomes","detail":"No agent outcome data yet"},{"status":"pass","label":"Ownership","detail":"Listing manually verified"},{"status":"pass","label":"OpenAgentSkill usage","detail":"32 views, 0 install copies"},{"status":"info","label":"Agent outcomes","detail":"No agent outcome data yet"}],"strengths":["Manually verified listing","AI review approved","Install path is available","Repository evidence is available","Recently maintained repository","Install command has no obvious high-risk pattern","Outcome loop is ready but needs first real agent run"],"warnings":["Financial research output is not financial advice; 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Inspect the source and identify valid skill instructions before proposing an installation. A repository URL or GitHub stars do not prove installability.","installSafety":"standard package or runtime install path","permissionSurface":"filesystem or document access","documentation":"Strong README/SKILL.md context","agentOutcomes":"No agent outcome data yet","agentProvenScore":0,"outcomeConfidence":"0%","installPolicy":"human_review_before_install"},"installReadiness":{"ready":false,"command":null,"policy":"human_review_before_install","label":"Human review before install","notes":["Skill source structure is not confirmed in the registry. Inspect the source and identify valid skill instructions before proposing an installation. A repository URL or GitHub stars do not prove installability.","Repository evidence is available","License is declared","No Agent Proven outcome evidence yet","1mo since push","Financial domain: human review is required before use in a live investment workflow.","Trust Score v5 requires review or sandbox-only use before install."]},"agentCompatibility":["Python","Codex","Claude Code","Cursor","OpenAgentSkill CLI"],"riskSummary":{"level":"medium","label":"Review before production","notes":["Financial research output is not financial advice; require human review before any live investment decision.","Stars/forks activity: 234 stars, 37 forks; issue activity unavailable in current metadata"]},"outcomeEvidence":{"total":0,"successes":0,"failures":0,"notRelevant":0,"successRate":null,"installAttempts":0,"riskBlocked":0,"setupRequired":0,"installSuccessRate":null,"avgOutputQuality":null,"avgTimeToUsefulMs":null,"productionOutcomes":0,"humanReviewRequired":0,"recentSuccessRate":null,"recentFailureRate":null,"uniqueAgents":0,"agentProvenScore":0,"agentProvenLabel":"Needs first agent run","lastOutcomeAt":null,"label":"No agent outcome data yet"},"autoInstall":{"allowed":false,"sandboxRequired":true,"policy":"human_review_before_install","reason":"Ask for approval or run a sandbox-only trial before installing."},"outcome_loop":{"version":"openagentskill-agent-outcome-v4","required_after_install":true,"endpoint":"/api/agent/outcome","method":"POST","event_id_source":"feedback.event_id, install_receipt.resolve_event_id, or decision_packet.outcome_feedback.event_id","expected_outcomes":["success","failed","not_relevant","blocked_by_risk","setup_required"],"required_fields":["event_id","skill_slug","task"],"quality_fields":["task_success","output_quality","error_type","human_review_required","used_in_production","workspace","evidence_url","time_to_useful_ms","source_version"],"ranking_inputs_updated":["Trust Score v5 outcome confidence","Agent Proven Score","Resolve ranking task-fit evidence","Skill detail machine-readable metadata","Outcome leaderboard"]},"agent_contract":{"suited_tasks":["utility","agent-skill","skill","agent","skill-name","python"],"suited_agents":["Python","Codex","Claude Code","Cursor","OpenAgentSkill CLI"],"install_command":null,"trust_score":76,"trust_version":"trust-score-v5","risk_level":"medium","do_not_use_when":["Production credentials, payments, or irreversible account changes without explicit human review","Sensitive private data before reviewing repository code, license, and permission surface","Automatic installation in a production workspace","Autonomous investment, trading, tax, or suitability decisions without a qualified human review"],"before_install":["Read the audit page and machine-readable metadata.","Confirm the install command, license, and permission surface fit the workspace.","Get explicit human approval or choose an alternative before installing."],"after_run":["Report the outcome to /api/agent/outcome using the resolve event id.","Include output_quality, workspace, human_review_required, and evidence_url when available.","Re-resolve before broad production rollout."]},"bestFor":["utility","agent-skill","skill","agent","skill-name","python"],"doNotUseFor":["Production credentials, payments, or irreversible account changes without explicit human review","Sensitive private data before reviewing repository code, license, and permission surface","Automatic installation in a production workspace","Autonomous investment, trading, tax, or suitability decisions without a qualified human review"],"knownRisks":["Financial research output is not financial advice; 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