{"eval":{"version":"openagentskill-skill-eval-v1","slug":"open-lemma-options-implied-probability","name":"Options Implied Probability","generated_at":"2026-07-04T01:59:26.983Z","task_input":"Evaluate Options Implied Probability before installing it in an AI agent workflow","status":"review","score":79,"risk_level":"medium","decision":{"recommendation":"manual_review","reason":"Require human approval before installing into a real workspace.","auto_install_allowed":false,"policy":"review","human_review_required":true},"task_fit":{"score":94,"suited_tasks":["Finance and quant workflows","Claude Code teams","builders willing to evaluate younger projects","Retrieve market data","Compare financial signals","Generate investor-ready analysis","Inspect repository metadata","Compare code changes"],"suited_agents":["Python","Options Pricing","Codex","Claude Code","Cursor","OpenAgentSkill CLI","CLI"]},"install":{"command":"npx skills add Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability","ready":true,"policy":"review","safety_label":"Review before install","targets":[{"id":"openagentskill-cli","label":"CLI","kind":"command","value":"npx skills add Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability"},{"id":"codex","label":"Codex","kind":"agent-prompt","value":"Install the \"Options Implied Probability\" agent skill from https://github.com/Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability. Read its SKILL.md or equivalent instructions first, install only the files needed for this workspace, and summarize any required setup before using it. Skill purpose: OIPD computes the probabilities of an asset's future price as implied by the options market."},{"id":"claude-code","label":"Claude Code","kind":"agent-prompt","value":"Add \"Options Implied Probability\" as a Claude Code skill from https://github.com/Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability. Inspect the skill instructions, place the reusable skill files in the appropriate local skills location for this project, and report the activation steps. Skill purpose: OIPD computes the probabilities of an asset's future price as implied by the options market."},{"id":"cursor","label":"Cursor","kind":"agent-prompt","value":"Turn \"Options Implied Probability\" from https://github.com/Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability into a reusable Cursor project rule or agent instruction. Preserve the core workflow, adapt paths to this repo, and keep the rule scoped to tasks where it is relevant. Skill purpose: OIPD computes the probabilities of an asset's future price as implied by the options market."}]},"trust":{"score":80,"label":"Strong shortlist","version":"trust-score-v4","evidence":{"stars":"351 GitHub stars","repoActivity":"351 stars, 50 forks","lastPushed":"2mo since push","license":"Apache-2.0","repository":"https://github.com/Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability","install":"npx skills add Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability","installSafety":"standard package or runtime install path","permissionSurface":"filesystem or document access","documentation":"Strong README/SKILL.md context","agentOutcomes":"No agent outcome data yet"}},"audit":{"score":83,"risk_level":"safe_to_try","risk_label":"Safe to try","warnings":["Quality score needs review"]},"safety_gate":{"score":67,"tier":"reviewed","label":"Reviewed with permission notes","auto_install_policy":"review","blocked":false,"permission_hints":[{"id":"network","label":"Network access","reason":"Skill likely fetches remote pages, APIs, repositories, or external services.","severity":"medium"},{"id":"filesystem","label":"Filesystem access","reason":"Skill may read or write project files, documents, generated artifacts, or local workspace state.","severity":"medium"}],"policy_warnings":["Quality score needs review"]},"checks":[{"id":"task_fit","label":"Task fit","status":"pass","score":94,"required_for_auto_install":true,"detail":"Task wording matches this skill metadata.","evidence":["Evaluate Options Implied Probability before installing it in an AI agent workflow","finance","Finance and quant workflows; Claude Code teams; builders willing to evaluate younger projects"]},{"id":"install_path","label":"Install path","status":"pass","score":92,"required_for_auto_install":true,"detail":"Install handoff is available.","evidence":["npx skills add Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability"]},{"id":"install_safety","label":"Install command safety","status":"pass","score":92,"required_for_auto_install":true,"detail":"standard package or runtime install path","evidence":["npx skills add Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability"]},{"id":"trust_score","label":"Trust score","status":"warn","score":80,"required_for_auto_install":true,"detail":"Good trust signals with a few areas worth checking before rollout.","evidence":["Strong shortlist","351 GitHub stars","Apache-2.0"]},{"id":"audit_score","label":"Audit score","status":"pass","score":83,"required_for_auto_install":true,"detail":"Safe to try","evidence":["Quality score needs review"]},{"id":"agent_safety_gate","label":"Agent safety gate","status":"warn","score":67,"required_for_auto_install":true,"detail":"Usable candidate, but the agent should surface permission and audit notes before installation.","evidence":["Require human approval before installing into a real workspace.","Quality score needs review"]},{"id":"readme_skillmd_completeness","label":"README/SKILL.md completeness","status":"pass","score":90,"required_for_auto_install":false,"detail":"Metadata includes enough usage and workflow context","evidence":["Strong README/SKILL.md context"]},{"id":"license_clarity","label":"License clarity","status":"pass","score":86,"required_for_auto_install":true,"detail":"Apache-2.0","evidence":["Apache-2.0"]},{"id":"recent_maintenance","label":"Recent maintenance","status":"pass","score":88,"required_for_auto_install":false,"detail":"2mo since push","evidence":["2mo since push"]},{"id":"permission_surface","label":"Permission surface","status":"pass","score":86,"required_for_auto_install":true,"detail":"filesystem or document access","evidence":["Network access: medium","Filesystem access: medium"]},{"id":"alternatives","label":"Alternatives available","status":"pass","score":82,"required_for_auto_install":false,"detail":"Alternative skills are available for comparison.","evidence":["tauricresearch-tradingagents","openbb-finance-openbb","zhulinsen-daily-stock-analysis","freqtrade-freqtrade"]}],"blockers":[],"warnings":["Trust score: Good trust signals with a few areas worth checking before rollout.","Agent safety gate: Usable candidate, but the agent should surface permission and audit notes before installation.","Quality score needs review"],"validation_plan":["Inspect repository, README/SKILL.md, license, and recent commits before production use.","Install in an isolated workspace or sandbox with no production secrets available.","Run the smallest representative task and record files touched, commands run, network access, and outputs.","Compare the selected skill against at least one alternative when the eval status is review or failed.","Promote only after the agent reports a successful verification result and unresolved warnings are accepted."],"do_not_use_when":["teams that need a vendor-supported SLA","high-compliance environments without internal security review","No major risk signals from current metadata","Quality score needs review","Production credentials, payments, or irreversible account changes without explicit human review","Sensitive private data before reviewing repository code, license, and permission surface","Automatic installation in a production workspace"],"alternatives":[{"slug":"tauricresearch-tradingagents","name":"TradingAgents","url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/tauricresearch-tradingagents","stars":88376,"install_command":"npx skills add TauricResearch/TradingAgents","trust_score":92,"audit_score":95},{"slug":"openbb-finance-openbb","name":"OpenBB","url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/openbb-finance-openbb","stars":69519,"install_command":"npx skills add OpenBB-finance/OpenBB","trust_score":88,"audit_score":92},{"slug":"zhulinsen-daily-stock-analysis","name":"Daily Stock Analysis","url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/zhulinsen-daily-stock-analysis","stars":51899,"install_command":"npx skills add ZhuLinsen/daily_stock_analysis","trust_score":94,"audit_score":95},{"slug":"freqtrade-freqtrade","name":"Freqtrade","url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/freqtrade-freqtrade","stars":51565,"install_command":"npx skills add freqtrade/freqtrade","trust_score":92,"audit_score":95}],"machine_metadata":{"version":"openagentskill-agent-metadata-v2","skill":{"slug":"open-lemma-options-implied-probability","name":"Options Implied Probability","description":"OIPD computes the probabilities of an asset's future price as implied by the options market.","category":"finance","url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/open-lemma-options-implied-probability","repository":"https://github.com/Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability","github_repo":"Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability"},"suited_tasks":["Finance and quant workflows","Claude Code teams","builders willing to evaluate younger projects","Retrieve market data","Compare financial signals","Generate investor-ready analysis","Inspect repository metadata","Compare code changes"],"suited_agents":["Python","Options Pricing","Codex","Claude Code","Cursor","OpenAgentSkill CLI","CLI"],"install":{"command":"npx skills add Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability","ready":true,"targets":[{"id":"openagentskill-cli","label":"CLI","kind":"command","value":"npx skills add Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability"},{"id":"codex","label":"Codex","kind":"agent-prompt","value":"Install the \"Options Implied Probability\" agent skill from https://github.com/Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability. Read its SKILL.md or equivalent instructions first, install only the files needed for this workspace, and summarize any required setup before using it. Skill purpose: OIPD computes the probabilities of an asset's future price as implied by the options market."},{"id":"claude-code","label":"Claude Code","kind":"agent-prompt","value":"Add \"Options Implied Probability\" as a Claude Code skill from https://github.com/Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability. Inspect the skill instructions, place the reusable skill files in the appropriate local skills location for this project, and report the activation steps. Skill purpose: OIPD computes the probabilities of an asset's future price as implied by the options market."},{"id":"cursor","label":"Cursor","kind":"agent-prompt","value":"Turn \"Options Implied Probability\" from https://github.com/Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability into a reusable Cursor project rule or agent instruction. Preserve the core workflow, adapt paths to this repo, and keep the rule scoped to tasks where it is relevant. Skill purpose: OIPD computes the probabilities of an asset's future price as implied by the options market."}],"handoff_url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/skills/open-lemma-options-implied-probability/install","manifest_url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/registry/manifest/open-lemma-options-implied-probability"},"trust":{"score":80,"label":"Strong shortlist","version":"trust-score-v4","install_policy":"human_review_before_install","evidence":{"stars":"351 GitHub stars","repoActivity":"351 stars, 50 forks","lastPushed":"2mo since push","license":"Apache-2.0","repository":"https://github.com/Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability","install":"npx skills add Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability","installSafety":"standard package or runtime install path","permissionSurface":"filesystem or document access","documentation":"Strong README/SKILL.md context","agentOutcomes":"No agent outcome data yet"},"outcome_evidence":{"total":0,"successes":0,"failures":0,"not_relevant":0,"success_rate":null,"recent_success_rate":null,"recent_failure_rate":null,"install_attempts":0,"install_success_rate":null,"risk_blocked":0,"setup_required":0,"avg_output_quality":null,"production_outcomes":0,"last_outcome_at":null,"label":"No agent outcome data yet"},"auto_install":{"allowed":false,"sandbox_required":true,"reason":"Human review or sandbox validation is required before automatic installation."},"best_for":["finance","options-pricing","quant","implied-volatility","impliedprobability","option-pricing"],"known_risks":["Quality score needs review"]},"agent_proven":{"version":"agent-proven-v1","score":0,"tier":"unproven","label":"Needs first agent run","summary":"No agent outcome reports yet. Use Resolve, run one narrow sandbox task, then report the result.","metrics":{"totalOutcomes":0,"successfulOutcomes":0,"failedOutcomes":0,"installAttempts":0,"installSuccessRate":null,"successRate":null,"recentSuccessRate":null,"recentFailureRate":null,"riskBlocked":0,"setupRequired":0,"notRelevant":0,"avgOutputQuality":null,"avgTimeToUsefulMs":null,"productionOutcomes":0,"humanReviewRequired":0,"uniqueAgents":0,"lastOutcomeAt":null},"signals":[],"penalties":["No real agent outcome evidence yet"]},"audit":{"score":83,"risk_level":"safe_to_try","risk_label":"Safe to try","warnings":["Quality score needs review"]},"safety_gate":{"tier":"reviewed","label":"Reviewed with permission notes","auto_install_policy":"review","auto_install_allowed":false,"human_review_required":true,"blocked":false,"recommended_action":"Require human approval before installing into a real workspace."},"quality":{"score":77,"label":"Strong"},"supply":{"track":"Finance and quant workflows","scenario":"Finance and quant","maintenance":"2mo since push","risk":"Safe to try"},"alternative_skills":[{"slug":"tauricresearch-tradingagents","name":"TradingAgents","url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/tauricresearch-tradingagents","stars":88376,"install_command":"npx skills add TauricResearch/TradingAgents","trust_score":92,"audit_score":95},{"slug":"openbb-finance-openbb","name":"OpenBB","url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/openbb-finance-openbb","stars":69519,"install_command":"npx skills add OpenBB-finance/OpenBB","trust_score":88,"audit_score":92},{"slug":"zhulinsen-daily-stock-analysis","name":"Daily Stock Analysis","url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/zhulinsen-daily-stock-analysis","stars":51899,"install_command":"npx skills add ZhuLinsen/daily_stock_analysis","trust_score":94,"audit_score":95},{"slug":"freqtrade-freqtrade","name":"Freqtrade","url":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/freqtrade-freqtrade","stars":51565,"install_command":"npx skills add freqtrade/freqtrade","trust_score":92,"audit_score":95}],"do_not_use_when":["teams that need a vendor-supported SLA","high-compliance environments without internal security review","No major risk signals from current metadata","Quality score needs review","Production credentials, payments, or irreversible account changes without explicit human review","Sensitive private data before reviewing repository code, license, and permission surface","Automatic installation in a production workspace"],"agent_contract":{"task_input":"Evaluate Options Implied Probability before installing it in an AI agent workflow","recommended_action":"Require human approval before installing into a real workspace.","install_policy":"review","minimum_review_before_use":["Trust: 80/100 Strong shortlist","Audit: 83/100 Safe to try","Safety: 67/100 Review before install","Review repository, license, install command, and permission surface before production use."],"expected_agent_output":{"selected_skill":"open-lemma-options-implied-probability (Options Implied Probability)","install_command":"npx skills add Open-Lemma/options-implied-probability","risk_summary":"Safe to try; Reviewed with permission notes; Review before production","verification_result":"Report the smallest successful task, files touched, warnings, and any missing setup."}},"outcome_feedback":{"endpoint":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/outcome","method":"POST","requires_resolve_event_id":true,"event_id_source":"Use install_receipt.outcome_feedback.event_id or feedback.event_id returned by /api/agent/resolve for the current task.","expected_outcomes":["success","failed","not_relevant","blocked_by_risk","setup_required"],"payload_template":{"event_id":"<install_receipt.outcome_feedback.event_id or feedback.event_id from /api/agent/resolve>","skill_slug":"open-lemma-options-implied-probability","task":"Evaluate Options Implied Probability before installing it in an AI agent workflow","agent":"codex","outcome":"success","install_used":true,"risk_blocked":false,"setup_required":false,"task_success":true,"output_quality":4,"error_type":null,"human_review_required":false,"workspace":"sandbox","time_to_useful_ms":120000,"notes":"Report the smallest successful task, setup friction, files touched, and risk notes."}},"endpoints":{"web":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/open-lemma-options-implied-probability","api":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/skills/open-lemma-options-implied-probability","audit":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/open-lemma-options-implied-probability/audit","eval":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/evals?slug=open-lemma-options-implied-probability&task=Evaluate%20Options%20Implied%20Probability%20before%20installing%20it%20in%20an%20AI%20agent%20workflow&max_risk=medium","resolve":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/resolve?task=Evaluate%20Options%20Implied%20Probability%20before%20installing%20it%20in%20an%20AI%20agent%20workflow&agent=codex&max_risk=medium","receipt":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/receipt?task=Evaluate%20Options%20Implied%20Probability%20before%20installing%20it%20in%20an%20AI%20agent%20workflow&agent=codex&max_risk=medium&format=text","install":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/skills/open-lemma-options-implied-probability/install","manifest":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/registry/manifest/open-lemma-options-implied-probability"}},"endpoints":{"web":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/open-lemma-options-implied-probability","api":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/skills/open-lemma-options-implied-probability","eval":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/evals?slug=open-lemma-options-implied-probability","audit":"https://www.openagentskill.com/skills/open-lemma-options-implied-probability/audit","resolve":"https://www.openagentskill.com/api/agent/resolve?task=Evaluate%20Options%20Implied%20Probability%20before%20installing%20it%20in%20an%20AI%20agent%20workflow&agent=codex&max_risk=medium"}},"meta":{"endpoint":"/api/agent/evals","mode":"skill_eval","purpose":"Pre-install eval contract for a single skill. Agents should read this before installing a reusable skill.","generated_at":"2026-07-04T01:59:26.983Z"}}